Analysis and Forecast of Calcium Carbide Price Trends in August 2016

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Analysis and forecast of calcium carbide price trends in August 2016, August 1, 2016, China Chemical Products Network: The price of calcium carbide in July dropped by 0.46%. Currently, the ex-factory prices offered by major manufacturers in Shandong are around 2,080–2,100 yuan per ton, while in Inner Mongolia they are around 2,200–2,150 yuan per ton. In Ningxia, the ex-factory prices range from 2,150 to 2,300 yuan per ton. There is an ample supply of this product, but the arrival of calcium carbide varies across different regions. 　 　Industry chain: In July, the price of coke in the upstream market first declined before rising again. At the beginning of the month, major producers quoted prices around 843 yuan per ton, while by the end of the month the price was around 839 yuan per ton, representing a slight decrease of 0.45% on a month-on-month basis; meanwhile, there was a rise of 6.17% on a year-on-year basis. Due to coal companies reducing their production capacity, lower output levels, and consistently low inventory levels at intermediate stages, the supply in the coal market has been tight recently. The price is expected to continue rising in the future, with increased support from the cost of calcium carbide ； 　　The market price of PVC has seen fluctuating increases; the average price at the beginning of the month was 5,277 yuan per ton, rising to 5,447 yuan per ton by the end of the month, an increase of 3.22%. The current price is 0.71% lower than it was last year. Affected by the futures market, PVC prices have risen, but demand from downstream industries is weak; overall, there is an excess of capacity, resulting in supply exceeding demand. It is expected that the PVC market will remain volatile at high levels in August ； In July, the domestic trichloroethylene market remained stable. At the beginning of the month, the average price quoted by major manufacturers was 4,850 yuan per ton, while by the end of the month it rose to 4,900 yuan per ton, representing an increase of 1.03%, which is on par with last year’s level. Weak demand from downstream industries, along with a lack of positive factors supporting the market, suggests that it will continue to operate in a weak state in the coming period. 　　Industry: Currently, environmental inspections are being intensified; some mines have been shut down, and the operating rate of calcium carbide furnaces has decreased, leading to a drop in calcium carbide production. On the other hand, the PVC market remains favorable, which keeps the operation rate of PVC plants high and increases the demand for calcium carbide. Purchases are active, trading is brisk, and the price level is starting to rise. 　　 Future outlook: Prices of upstream raw materials are on the rise, demand on the downstream side is strong. The production of calcium carbide is unstable, leading to a slight supply shortage. Analysts at the Chemical Products Network predict that the price of calcium carbide in August 2016 will trend upward, with an increase of 50–100 yuan per ton.