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Analysis of the Impact on the Export Volume of Synthetic Ammonia Author/Source: Date: 2016-09-18 Clicks: 6 Most synthetic ammonia manufacturers operate integrated production facilities, with many of them supplying the ammonia directly for use in urea production； There are also hydrazine units, allowing the output of synthetic ammonia to be adjusted at any time. What is the impact of export volumes on the market? The editor of Treasure Island will provide a detailed analysis. As can be seen from the chart showing the export volume of synthetic ammonia, there has been an upward trend in its export volume since 2016. There are various reasons for this increase in exports. But the main reason is that the urea market is sluggish, with most fertilizer companies suffering losses; as urea production decreases, exports of synthetic ammonia increase ； There has been a noticeable increase in the export volume of liquid ammonia from the main urea-producing regions. Some enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places that previously did not export synthetic ammonia are now exporting it on an irregular basis or on a long-term basis. http://img8.fert.cn/image/20160918/20160918083899109910.png An increase in exports will first affect price changes in the synthetic ammonia market. As can be seen from the table, the average price in the synthetic ammonia markets of the main production areas dropped by more than 20% over those two years. The supply and demand situation directly affects price fluctuations. The main reason for such a significant decline in prices is the volume of exports; as export volumes increase while demand fails to keep up, prices gradually drop. Furthermore, most of the synthetic ammonia exported is used in industry, while demand for fertilizers mainly relates to supporting facilities. The increase in exports indicates that more synthetic ammonia is flowing into the industrial sector, and the traditional proportion of demand for synthetic ammonia is gradually changing. However, compared to the monthly production of over 4 million tons of synthetic ammonia, current export volumes account for only around 10% of that monthly production. Although the reduction of urea production capacity has been progressing gradually, demand for ammonia-based fertilizers is on the decline. But in the short term, overall supply and demand remain largely unchanged. Therefore, export volumes have a direct impact on market prices. As urea prices have been rising recently, there is a trend toward a decrease in the export volume of liquid ammonia, which could lead to further increases in prices. With no significant changes on the demand side, focusing on changes in export volumes will remain key to understanding future market fluctuations. (Treasure Island)