September 2016 Weekly Review on Liquid Ammonia: Continued upward trend

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Weekly Review of Liquid Ammonia: Uptrend Continues Author/Source: Date: 2016-09-19 Clicks: 5 This week, the liquid ammonia market in China continued its upward trend from the previous week; prices rose to varying degrees in the East China, North China, and Central China regions, with increases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan. In some areas of Southwest China, prices also saw slight increases due to factors such as plant maintenance. In the Hebei region, due to relatively low prices earlier on, downstream end-users made minor stock replenishments ahead of the festival. During the festival, there were rumors that some plants in the Hengshui area planned to shut down, and some end-users in the Northeast region intended to increase their ammonia purchases after the festival. Coupled with stable demand in western Shandong, prices rose, with the overall weekly increase ranging from 80 to 120 yuan ； Recently, the supply of goods in northern Shandong has been relatively abundant; companies such as Alliance and Hualu Hengsheng have released large quantities of goods. At the same time, demand from end-users in western Shandong and Haili remains stable. Additionally, due to high prices in Henan, many supplies fail to reach Shandong. As a result, prices in northern Shandong have also risen by around 50 yuan this week ； Affected by the significant production increases on the part of enterprises in northern Jiangsu, price adjustments in the Linyi area have been modest. However, sales after the holiday were slightly smoother compared to before, and enterprises are confident, with optimistic outlooks for the future ； In Jiangsu region, price trends have been relatively stable this week. In northern Jiangsu, prices saw a slight decline, but in some areas they rose by 30 yuan after the holiday. In southern Jiangsu, Zhongyan Kunshan maintained normal sales volumes with smooth product turnover ； In the Anhui market, prices have continued to rise slightly this week, while demand in Hubei, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as in the local area, remains decent ； In the Henan region, prices rose by around 50-100 yuan this week. There was a limited supply of goods in Jinan, leading to only a slight increase in prices. In some companies in the northern area, prices increased but then dropped slightly after the holiday, though this had little impact on surrounding areas ； The Two Lakes region has maintained a steady, modest upward trend this week, with prices remaining stable in the later stages. Currently, the mainstream acceptance price in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 1,850 yuan per ton. The production rate in Hengshui is relatively low, while the factory acceptance price in Cangzhou is 1,970 yuan per ton ； In northern Shandong, the cash price is 1,860–1,910 yuan per ton, while in Linyi the prevailing price for acceptance payments is 2,050–2,070 yuan per ton ； In Jiangsu province, the mainstream price for goods delivered upon acceptance in northern Jiangsu is 2,060–2,080 yuan per ton, while in southern Jiangsu it is 2,200–2,250 yuan per ton ； In northern Anhui, the prevailing acceptance price is 2,040–2,070 yuan per ton, while in southern Anhui the cash price is 2,120 yuan per ton ； The mainstream price range in the Henan region is 1,900–1,980 yuan per ton ； The current market price for liquid ammonia in Hubei is 2,250 yuan per ton, while the actual transaction price is 2,200 yuan per ton; the price is negotiable ； The prevailing price in Hunan is around 2,280 yuan per ton. 　　Future market forecast: Production activity in the Hengshui area of Hebei is relatively low, with a total reduction in supply of around 600 tons. Additionally, there is an expectation of an increase in purchases from the Northeast region in the future, and companies in Hebei are quite confident; therefore, prices may still have room to rise in the coming period ； The overall supply volume in northern Shandong is high; in the coming period, sales volume will be the main focus. However, some local companies expect price increases. In Linyi, due to maintenance work at facilities in northern Jiangsu, prices are likely to rise by around 20-30 yuan starting tomorrow ； Sales in northern Jiangsu are performing well; prices at some of Hengsheng’s facilities may rise again after maintenance work is completed tomorrow ； Demand in Anhui remains stable; supported by costs such as coal, businesses have considerable confidence, with some still holding a bullish outlook. Overall, the demand for liquid ammonia remains decent; there is also a need for restocking after the holiday period. Prices are likely to remain stable with only slight fluctuations, ranging from 30 to 50 yuan. (Ministry of Commerce website)