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Sulfur prices have soared, with sulfuric acid prices doubling. Recently, the sulfur industry chain has undergone changes as a result of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and adjustments in global supply and demand patterns. Reporters learned at a market forum on the sulfur industry chain in the first half of 2026 that, due to disruptions in global sulfur trade and sharp increases in prices, the price of sulfuric acid has also risen, thereby increasing uncertainty within the industry chain and supply chain. Industry experts believe that the sulfur industry urgently needs to move away from its reliance on a single raw material, and accelerate the exploration of new development paths that rely on multiple alternatives and ensure autonomy and control. Source: Imbalance between sulfur supply and demand leads to consistently high prices. Industry experts believe that the root cause of the sharp rise in prices across the sulfur industry chain lies in the upstream sulfur market. Global sulfur production capacity is highly dependent on by-products from oil and gas refining, and production areas are concentrated in regions such as the Middle East and Russia, making it highly susceptible to influences from geopolitics, export policies, and changes in logistics routes. From the supply side, Freda Gordon, a senior analyst at Acuity Commodities Ltd., said that the bans on Russian sulfur exports have been extended on several occasions, resulting in a significant reduction in export volumes ； Reduced production and limited exports from Gulf producing regions such as Iran have further exacerbated global sulfur supply pressures. Not only that, but the conflicts in the Middle East have led to disruptions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and combined with soaring freight and insurance costs, these various factors have contributed to rising sulfur prices. Data from the China Sulfur Industry Association show that by 2025, the average price of sulfur imported into China reached 265.3 US dollars per ton, a increase of 128.2% compared to the same period last year. From the demand side, the new energy sector has become the core driver of growth for the sulfur industry chain. The hydrochloric acid leaching process in Indonesia’s nickel industry, the expansion of Morocco’s phosphate chemicals industry, and the increase in production capacity for lithium iron phosphate in China are all contributing to a significant rise in demand for sulfur. At the same time, new consumers of metals and key minerals are continuously entering the market, further competing for already limited supplies of sulfur and sulfuric acid. Zhao Lei, a senior analyst at S&P Global, said that if the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East persist for a long time, the structural shortage of sulfur will continue. Buyers in trouble are forced to turn to alternative suppliers such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but these countries **also face logistical and production constraints, making it difficult for them to fill the supply gap; this will further sustain high sulfur prices. “In the future, sulfur and sulfuric acid will no longer be mere by-products, but strategic raw materials. ”Freda Gordon emphasized, “When supply is limited, demands from different sectors compete directly with one another.” Structural changes on the demand side have intensified market competition, and the uncertainty caused by the conflicts in the Middle East may take years to resolve; as a result, the market will gradually reach a new equilibrium for sulfur prices. ” Transmission: Sulfuric acid prices have doubled; it is difficult to reverse this upward trend. As a key product derived from sulfur, the price of sulfuric acid is closely tied to the prices of its upstream raw materials. Fluctuations in sulfur prices are transmitted rigidly along the industry chain, driving up the price of sulfuric acid. According to data from the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was only 295 yuan in 2024; by 2025 it had risen to 605 yuan, representing a growth rate of 105% ； The upward trend accelerated further in 2026; by April, the average price of 98% sulfuric acid had exceeded 1,600 yuan. Li Chong, secretary-general of the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association, believes that there are three key factors behind the high prices of sulfuric acid. Firstly, it is driven by the rigid prices of sulfur; as a by-product of smelting, the pricing of sulfuric acid must be lower than the cost of producing it from sulfur in order to be acceptable to downstream users, meaning its price fluctuates passively in line with sulfur prices. Secondly, the mismatch between supply and demand is continuing to worsen; the contraction on the supply side and the growth on the demand side create a strong contrast that provides solid support for rising prices. Third is the backward transmission in the copper smelting industry. With the development of industries such as artificial intelligence, demand for copper is increasing. However, due to the long construction time and high costs associated with copper mines, there is a shortage of supply, which results in continuously low processing fees for copper smelting. The spot processing fees remain negative for extended periods, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products such as sulfuric acid and high recovery rates in order to offset these negative processing costs and achieve profitability. Freda Gordon further stated that the new smelting projects alone would result in only a limited increase in sulfuric acid supply, and the sulfur shortage in the Middle East has led to a reduction in global sulfur-based acid production capacity ； If the tight supply of copper ore persists, and smelters are unable to cover the cost differences through high-priced sulfuric acid exports, sulfuric acid production capacity will be further constrained, with the actual supply potentially falling short of market expectations. Therefore, sulfuric acid prices will remain on the rise this year before more downstream industries shut down due to cost pressures. Breaking the deadlock: Multiple alternatives pursued simultaneously to build an independent and controllable industrial chain. Faced with a global supply balance that is tight, volatile prices, and increasing external risks, China’s sulfur industry focuses on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, while seeking new paths for sustainable development from various perspectives. Rising prices in the sulfur industry chain have imposed high cost pressures on the phosphate fertilizer sector. Li Guangqiang, secretary-general of the China Phosphorus Fertilizer Industry Association, emphasized that the phosphorus fertilizer industry faces severe constraints due to raw material costs in the production process, and the ability to supply raw materials independently has become a development bottleneck that leading companies must overcome. Therefore, the industry needs to ensure capacity expansion by pursuing an international strategy for phosphorus resources, developing technologies for producing acid from phosphogypsum, and establishing a strategic reserve system for sulfur resources, with the goal of reducing reliance on imported sulfur to 30%. Freda Gordon also said that the industry should pursue the substitution of raw materials, shifting from the direct use of sulfur to the use of sulfuric acid where possible, in order to reduce reliance on costly or scarce raw materials. The reporter learned that currently, using phosphogypsum to produce sulfuric acid is the most direct and practical alternative in the phosphate fertilizer industry. Liao Kangcheng, deputy secretary-general of the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association, provided specific economic calculations: \"As long as the price of sulfur exceeds 2,000 yuan, producing acid from phosphogypsum can be profitable.\" Even if the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East come to an end and sulfur production and shipping recover rapidly, it will be difficult for sulfur prices to drop below 4,000 yuan. Therefore, within the current price range, the production of acid from phosphogypsum will encounter a period of rapid development. ” This technical approach has been proven in practice. Guizhou Phosphorus Chemical’s technology for producing acid from phosphogypsum enables the processing of 1.4 million tons of phosphogypsum per year, resulting in over 600,000 tons of sulfuric acid; the cost of this process is nearly half that of producing acid using sulfur ； The key technologies for the harmless treatment of phosphogypsum developed by China Chemical Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. have been applied in multiple large-scale phosphate chemical enterprises, with an annual processing capacity of over 20.75 million tons of phosphogypsum. Liao Kangcheng also put forward a more forward-looking idea: \"Is it possible for phosphate fertilizer manufacturers to bypass sulfuric acid as an intermediate and directly develop processes such as thermal phosphoric acid and nitric acid phosphate fertilizers, thereby reducing their dependence on sulfuric acid.\" ” The reporter learned that several companies have already carried out relevant initiatives. Shanxi Tianji Coal Chemical Group Co., Ltd. uses nitric acid to decompose phosphate rocks; no sulfur is employed throughout the process, it can handle low-grade phosphate rocks, and no phosphogypsum waste is generated ； The frozen-process phosphoric acid fertilizer technology of Shenzhen Batian Ecological Engineering Co., Ltd. enables the production with zero sulfur, zero sulfuric acid, and zero phosphogypsum. Furthermore, the technology route for recovering sulfur dioxide from exhaust gases to produce sulfuric acid also holds broad development prospects. Liao Kangcheng explained that in China, the total amount of sulfur dioxide generated from industrial exhaust gases each year exceeds 20 million tons, with emissions amounting to around 2 million tons; 18 million tons of this sulfur dioxide is treated through environmental protection facilities. If this sulfur dioxide can be converted into sulfuric acid through new technologies, it will effectively supplement the supply of sulfur resources.