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At present, not only in Jiangsu Province, but also in Yunnan production has been restricted by 90% and in Shaanxi by 60%; in many other regions, power supply has been limited by about 15%... Various astonishing and bizarre measures are being implemented on a large scale during this peak sales period of \"Golden September and Silver October\" this year. What adds to the woes of those in the chemical industry is that the reduced operating rates have led to a shortage of supply and a demand that outstrips what is available; as a result, prices of various chemical products have soared to levels that are truly astonishing in terms of both intensity and magnitude. Jiangsu: Power and production restrictions have led to the near-complete shutdown of chemical plants. At a meeting held in early September by the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, it was decided to carry out special energy-saving inspections on enterprises with an annual comprehensive energy consumption of over 50,000 tons of standard coal. Such inspections were launched on 323 enterprises in the province that meet this threshold, as well as 29 enterprises involved in \"high-energy-consuming and high-emission\" projects. Due to the red alert regarding energy consumption controls, Jiangsu province has implemented stricter policies: 10 billion kWh of electricity usage will be reduced each month starting from the 15th. Enterprises in Dainan area will experience power outages from September 16th to October 8th, with all production activities to cease between 12 midnight on September 16th and October 8th; these enterprises are required to report to the power supply authorities to have their transformers shut down ； Factories in the Nantong area have been notified of a power cut of around 15% ； Enterprises in Hailing District, Taizhou City, and other areas have also reported receiving notices of power restrictions. Soda ash: Jiangsu Province has a soda ash production capacity of 5.95 million tons, accounting for 17% of the country’s total soda ash production. As an industry with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions, the soda ash industry is also included among those subject to production restrictions. Lianyungang Alkali Industry: Of its 1.3 million-ton production capacity, 70% is currently in operation. Raw material purchases were halted in October, and operations will cease by the end of the year ； Shilian Chemical has a production capacity of 1.1 million tons; production is limited by 40%, and currently 60% of the capacity is in use ； Xuzhou Fengcheng Salt Chemical has a production capacity of 600,000 tons, with 50% of that capacity in use; Zhongyan Kunshan has a production capacity of 850,000 tons, with its daily output reduced by 300 tons. Currently, the capacity of the industry that is shut down for maintenance amounts to 2.1 million tons, accounting for 6%; the total capacity under maintenance is around 7 million tons, representing 20.7%. As a result, the industry’s supply has declined significantly. The factory’s inventory is 300,000 tons, at a level low for the past two years. The spot price of soda ash has seen more than 10 increases since the beginning of the year, and it is now at a level high for nearly 10 years. Currently, the market price of heavy soda ash is 2,600 yuan per ton, while that of light soda ash is 2,400 yuan per ton; both have seen price increases of over 80% since the beginning of this year. Epichlorohydrin: At the beginning of September, the large-scale producer of epichlorohydrin, Jiangsu Haixing, ceased production, which caused anxiety in the industry; as a result, the price of epichlorohydrin soared from 16,000 yuan per ton to over 20,000 yuan per ton. Subsequently, various factories in the Jiangsu region received notices to reduce production or cease operations, and most enterprises producing epichlorohydrin in that area were affected. The main chlorinated hydrocarbon production enterprises in Jiangsu include: Jiangsu Haixing with 130,000 tons, Jiangsu Ruixiang with 150,000 tons, Huanhai Chemical with 100,000 tons, and Jiangsu Anbang with 20,000 tons. Currently, affected by the \"dual controls,\" the average operating level of epichlorohydrin remains low, and the tight supply situation in the market shows no signs of easing. Some epichlorohydrin producers have stopped reporting prices, and there is a strong atmosphere of speculation in the market, with manufacturers continuing to maintain high prices. The latest reference price is around 20,300 yuan per ton, up by 3,500 yuan per ton from the previous week, reaching a level not seen since October 2019. Epoxy resins: Under the current management system for controlling energy consumption, enterprises that have their own power plants, boilers, or steam generators are considered key targets for emission reduction, and the major resin manufacturers in Jiangsu fall into this category as well. The price of upstream epichlorohydrin has risen sharply, and the volume of actual orders is insufficient; as a result, many epoxy resin manufacturers have stopped taking new orders. Currently, the reference price for liquid resins in East China is above 36,500 yuan per ton, with one major manufacturer offering a price of nearly 38,000 yuan per ton (for bulk packaging), which has shocked market participants. Propylene oxide: Due to the favorable environment resulting from the controls on energy consumption, overall production levels in the propylene oxide market remain low. Various regions are implementing measures to control energy use; at present, only the Fuqiang plant has stopped operating, but it is possible that other plants will also reduce their production in the future. The prevailing price in Shandong has risen by 100 yuan, reaching 16,400–16,500 yuan per ton on a cash basis at the factory gate. Jiangsu Province’s strict controls on carbon emissions are now in full force, targeting the large energy consumers. High carbon emissions are flagged by double red alerts; failure to curb and reverse this trend in the short term will result in accountability. Therefore, decisive measures must be taken to enforce strict regulation, with the goal of significantly reducing carbon emissions and energy consumption by September through effective emission reduction actions. In addition to Jiangsu, a major chemical-producing province, energy consumption restrictions have also been implemented in many other regions. Inner Mongolia: With dual control measures and traffic restrictions in place, quotations for various chemical products have been suspended. Starting from 2021, Inner Mongolia no longer approves new production capacity projects for coke (semi-coke), calcium carbide, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), synthetic ammonia (urea), methanol, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, soda ash, ammonium phosphate, yellow phosphorus, as well as polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon that lack downstream processing applications. Affected by both the “dual control” policy and traffic restrictions related to the National Games, in terms of PVC production, the daily output reduction of calcium carbide is estimated at around 5,000 tons, based on the maximum limits stipulated in relevant documents ； The production and transportation of calcium carbide, a raw material for PVC, are significantly restricted, driving up PVC prices. Some manufacturers have suspended quoting prices, with spot prices rising by 470 yuan per ton within a single day. Hanwha Ningbo is currently accepting orders only within a limited timeframe; quotes for all grades are currently unavailable ； No quote available for the Qingdao Gulf plant site for now ； Jiantao Chemical in Hengyang, Hunan: No quotes available for Type V products at this time ； The output at Dagu is low; quotes are not available for models 700/1000/800/1300 for now. Shaanxi: Maximum production cut of 60%; multiple chemical plants under strict regulation. Yulin, Shaanxi, issued the “Notice on Ensuring the Achievement of the Dual Control Targets for Energy Consumption in 2021,” stipulating that from September to December, newly constructed “two-high” projects must not be put into operation. For those “two-high” projects that have already been commissioned this year, production must be reduced by 60% compared to the previous month’s output. Other “two-high” enterprises are required to take measures such as lowering the operating load of production lines and shutting down submerged arc furnaces to ensure a 50% reduction in production in September. The introduction of Yulin’s policies on dual control of energy consumption marks a further escalation in the country’s efforts to regulate energy use. The document stipulates that in 2021, the total energy consumption in Yulin city should be kept below 39.37 million tons of standard coal. Among them, methanol affects the production capacity of non-integrated facilities by 2.76 million tons, accounting for about 2.8% of the total capacity; it is expected that production will decrease by around 60,000 tons in September. Spurred by this news, related futures contracts saw sharp increases; by the close of trading last evening, the main methanol futures contract had risen by over 5%, reaching a new high since 2018. Production in Yunnan has been restricted by 90%, resulting in a shortage of chemical products; the price of yellow phosphorus changes every day. Due to stricter controls on energy consumption in that region, the production capacity of yellow phosphorus manufacturers has been reduced by 90%. Additionally, restrictions on voltage and power usage have further diminished their production capacity, exacerbating the shortage of this product. As a result, the price of yellow phosphorus has soared, with the current highest price reaching 60,000 yuan per ton, and it is extremely difficult to find this product in the market. Manufacturers are prioritizing early orders; there is a shortage of stock available, and orders are being scheduled until October. Some manufacturers have temporarily stopped providing quotes to external clients. Phosphoric acid: Due to the sharp rise in the price of raw material yellow phosphorus, the average price of phosphoric acid has recently reached 12,333.33 yuan per ton. The price changes every day, with an increase of 8,700 yuan per ton within a week, representing a growth rate of over 40%; on a year-on-year basis, the increase is 156%. The prices offered by companies are generally above 10,000 yuan per ton, with the highest price reaching 18,000 yuan per ton, thus reaching a new high. Currently, raw materials are in short supply and at high prices, forcing phosphate manufacturers to reduce production or even shut down. The shortage of supplies in the market will continue, and in the future transactions may have to be carried out through auctions. Silicones: Against the backdrop of dual controls on energy consumption, 90% of the production capacity in the energy-intensive industrial silicon sector was restricted, causing prices to rise rapidly from 16,000 yuan per ton to over 30,000 yuan per ton. About 40% of the downstream applications for industrial silicon are in the field of silicone products, which has led to a shortage of silicone raw materials. At present, companies such as Tangshan Sanyou, Hubei Xingfa, Shandong Jinling, Luxi Chemical, Zhejiang Zhongtian, Inner Mongolia Hengyecheng, and Hesheng Silicon Industry have stopped accepting orders and are not providing quotes. The manufacturers are facing supply shortages and are only accepting a limited number of orders, prioritizing those placed in advance; the price for bulk orders has been set at 43,000 yuan per ton. Some companies say that in the past the increases were of a few hundred yuan, but recently they’ve been in the thousands of yuan – it’s truly insane. In addition, some enterprises in Guangdong have received notices requiring power rationing at off-peak times, while Ningxia has reported on the progress of its efforts to control energy consumption during the first half of the year, stating that the situation is extremely severe... Although not many regions have issued official orders for power and production restrictions yet, many enterprises say they have received notices from relevant authorities asking them to reduce their production capacity and lower their energy consumption. The \"black swan\" of dual control over energy consumption has arrived. Under such severe circumstances, achieving the goals related to energy control presents a tight schedule and heavy workload. It is expected that more regions will adopt strict measures in the future to restrict high-energy-consuming industries. For the energy-intensive chemical industry, this is undoubtedly another round of supply-side reform. As corporate utilization rates decline and production cuts and shutdowns become more frequent, inventory levels in the chemical market will also gradually decrease. Several large companies have already started selling in limited quantities or even stopped selling altogether; an alert of supply shortages has been issued. The current high prices may not represent the peak, as the supply-demand situation in the chemical industry will become even more strained in the future, leading to further increases in chemical prices.