Propylene: The main contract price is 6,420 yuan per ton; there are changes in downstream production activities and profits

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Propylene: The main contract price is 6,420 yuan per ton; there are changes in downstream production activities and profits. 2025-09-14 【Propylene market trends and supply-demand analysis】 The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,420 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan from the previous day； The spot price in East China is 6,575 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan ； The spot price in North China is 6,700 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged. The East China basis is 155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan ； The North China basis is 280 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan. Operating rate is 73%, down 2% ； China propylene CFR – Japan naphtha CFR is $196 per ton, down by $1 ； The CFR for propylene is $1.2, while that for propane remains at $81 per ton, unchanged ； Import profit – 209 yuan/ton, unchanged ； In-house inventory is 31,710 tons, a decrease of 5,320 tons. In the downstream sector of propylene, the operating rate of PP powder was 33%, a decrease of 4.04%; the production profit was -300 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged ； The operating rate of propylene oxide remained at 74%, while the production profit was -534 yuan per ton, an increase of 49 yuan ； The operating rate of n-butanol is 87%, up by 1%; the production profit is -166 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged ； The octanol operation rate was 96%, up by 1%; the production profit was 4 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged ； The utilization rate of acrylic acid was 74%, up by 5%; the production profit was 332 yuan per ton, an increase of 68 yuan ； The utilization rate of acrylonitrile is 72%, down by 1%; the production profit is -650 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan ； The phenoxone utilization rate was 69%, down by 6%; the production profit was -297 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of propylene declined on a weekly basis. The production load at Huabei Binhua has been reduced; the PDH units at Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng are still under maintenance. Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei plan to resume operations and increase production in the near future ； The PDH units at Donghua in East China, Zhangjiagang, and Ningbo Jinfafa remain shut down. Short-term supply support has driven stronger spot transactions, and once the Haiwei and Zhenhua plants resume operation, the tight supply situation is expected to ease. On the demand side, propylene prices remain high, downstream profits have shrunk significantly, and overall production levels have declined on a month-on-month basis. PP production volume declined significantly, while phenol ketone production dropped sharply due to maintenance shutdowns at some plants ； There is little change in PO startup ； The profits for butyl octanol are decent, with increased production volume ； The Wanhua acrylic plant has restarted, showing the highest increase in production. Weaker purchasing enthusiasm among some downstream buyers may suppress the upward momentum for propylene. On the cost side, OPEC+ continues to increase production, but geopolitical tensions have led to fluctuations in crude oil prices ； Foreign market propane prices continued to rise. Strategically, a neutral stance is recommended for one-sided moves ； Focus across periods: Take profit on PL01 - 02 when prices rise following the restart of the main PDH unit ； There is no strategy for cross-varieties at the moment. Risk factors include fluctuations in crude oil prices, maintenance activities at upstream facilities, and the operating status of downstream plants.