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Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. A week after the New Year, the overall fertilizer market has not improved as expected; on the contrary, a trend of weakness has intensified. Phenomena such as falling prices, low transaction volumes, and poor production levels are common in markets across the country. Fluctuations in the prices of raw materials affect the development of the finished fertilizer market. At present, the winter storage market for compound fertilizers is largely stagnant; although there is a peak demand for water-soluble fertilizers, their situation is also quite difficult. Recently, raw material prices have been weak, with urea prices continuing to fall without any sign of bottoming out. As of now, the prevailing ex-factory price of urea in Shandong region is between 1,830 and 1,880 yuan per ton, which is about 100 yuan per ton lower than the levels seen in previous weeks. At present, local environmental inspections are strict, demand from the industrial and agricultural sectors is weak, and there are rumors that urea manufacturers will resume production in mid-to-late January; as a result, prices are likely to continue falling in the future. As a result, the winter storage market is facing even greater difficulties; there is little chance of improvement before the Spring Festival, and at the same time, the market for water-soluble fertilizers has also declined. Firstly, cost support is weakening. As mentioned earlier, the price of local urea has dropped by 100 yuan per ton compared to previous periods; in addition, the prices of phosphorus and potassium fertilizers have also shown a downward trend to varying degrees. Currently, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% ammonium phosphate in Hubei region is between 2250–2300 yuan per ton, while the actual ex-factory price can be around 2150–2200 yuan per ton ； The national average factory price for 52% fully water-soluble potassium sulfate in powder form is around 3,050–3,100 yuan per ton. Given the decline in prices of these various raw materials, the cost support for finished fertilizers is bound to weaken. Recently, some compound fertilizer manufacturers have already started to lower their prices, both explicitly and implicitly. Considering the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase products, water-soluble fertilizer manufacturers are now planning to adjust their product prices and introduce corresponding preferential policies. Secondly, downstream demand is weak. Generally speaking, winter is often the peak season for the water-soluble fertilizer market, as the cultivation of fruit trees and other cash crops in certain areas drives trading activity in this sector. However, overall demand downstream did not increase significantly this winter, leaving the market atmosphere relatively calm. The first reason is the low price level of agricultural products, resulting in limited profits at the grassroots level. Following several years of low prices for field crops, the prices of cash crops followed a similar trend, remaining generally lower than in previous years, which led to a significant reduction in profits for growers ； The second reason is that low-cost suppliers pass off inferior products as high-quality ones. Due to a shortage of funds in the downstream market, high-priced products have lost their competitive advantage, allowing low-quality fake products to take advantage of the situation; this has severely disrupted the orderly structure of the water-soluble fertilizer market. Finally, commencement of production and shipment is restricted. The sluggish market atmosphere is reflected not only in prices and demand, but also production and shipping conditions for companies are not ideal. After winter sets in, temperatures drop and local environmental inspections become more stringent. The production of medium and small-sized enterprises essentially comes to a standstill; inventory levels are somewhat tight, forcing them to limit new orders in order to maintain supply ； This winter, frequent rain and snowfall has occurred in certain areas of the south, resulting in slippery roads and disrupted transportation. As a result, some companies have faced difficulties in shipping orders that were placed earlier, and new orders cannot be fulfilled on time, which has severely affected their short-term production and sales plans. Therefore, factors such as policies and natural conditions have had a negative impact on the development of the current water-soluble fertilizer market. In summary, despite the generally unsatisfactory conditions regarding raw materials and supply and demand, the water-soluble fertilizer market remains stable for now. As downstream demand increases and the situation regarding raw materials becomes clearer, the market is likely to continue its steady trend in the future.