Urea price trends across China on October 25

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Urea price trends across China on October 25
Author/Source: Yuege Agricultural Supplies Network
Date: October 25, 2019
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The domestic urea market continues to show weakness. Currently, negative factors dominate the fundamental situation of the domestic urea market; weak domestic demand lacks strong support. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and other regions have once again been affected. In particular, a large number of board factories in Shandong have suspended operations, leading to a rapid decline in trading volume. Within just a few days, urea prices have dropped consecutively. Influenced by mindsets such as “buying when prices rise and avoiding purchases when they fall”, the market remains cautious in procurement. As a result, manufacturers are seeing a significant slowdown in securing new orders, leading to a gradual buildup of inventory. In the short term, the domestic urea market is expected to remain weak. In the Shandong region, the ex-factory prices for small and medium-sized urea granules range from 1,730 to 1,760 yuan per ton. The prevailing transaction prices are around 1,620–1,680 yuan per ton. In the Linyi market, transaction prices are approximately 1,690–1,700 yuan per ton, while in the Heze market, they are around 1,670–1,680 yuan per ton. Some manufacturers have lowered their prices by 10–30 yuan per ton. In Hebei, the ex-factory price for small granules is between 1,710 and 1,780 yuan per ton; the typical transaction price is about 1,680–1,700 yuan per ton. Some companies have reduced their quotes by 10 yuan per ton. In Henan, the typical ex-factory price for small granules is 1,650–1,700 yuan per ton; some producers have cut their prices by 20 yuan per ton. In Anhui, the typical ex-factory price for small granules remains at 1,720–1,780 yuan per ton, with no changes observed. In Jiangsu, the typical price range for small and medium-sized granules is 1,730–1,820 yuan per ton; this level has remained stable. In Shanxi, the truck transport price for both large and small granules is roughly 1,580–1,630 yuan per ton; transaction prices have shown a downward trend. In Inner Mongolia, the typical transaction price for small and medium-sized granules is around 1,500–1,580 yuan per ton; prices remain unchanged. In Hubei, the typical price for small granules is 1,730–1,750 yuan per ton; this figure has stayed steady. In Shaanxi, the typical local sales price for small and medium-sized granules is 1,650 yuan per ton, while the export price is around 1,580 yuan per ton; both figures remain stable. In Guangxi, the typical wholesale price for small and medium-sized granules is approximately 1,870–1,880 yuan per ton; prices have not changed. In Sichuan, the ex-factory price for small and medium-sized granules is estimated at 1,720–1,800 yuan per ton; this level has remained constant. In Guangdong, the typical wholesale price for small granules is 1,860 yuan per ton; prices are stable. In Xinjiang, the ex-factory transaction price is around 1,380–1,450 yuan per ton; this figure has not fluctuated. In Jilin, the price for small urea granules is approximately 1,790–1,820 yuan per ton; prices remain unchanged. In Heilongjiang, the typical transaction price for small urea granules is 1,720 yuan per ton; this price has stayed stable. In Liaoning, the truck transport price for small urea granules ranges from 1,690 to 1,810 yuan per ton; transaction prices are negotiable. Some companies have lowered their quotes by 20 yuan per ton. Manufacturers such as Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, Yangmei Pingyuan, and Jinmei Minghua plan to halt production at the end of the month for maintenance. Meanwhile, Jinmei Tianyuan is set to restart operations tomorrow. In the short term, the market is expected to remain largely stable with minor fluctuations. Today, the quote for medium-sized granules from Hualu-Hengsheng is 1,730 (down by 30), while that for large-sized granules is 1,770 (down by 20). For small-sized granules, the price in Dongguang, Hebei is 1,700 (down by 10); Xinlianxin in Henan maintains a stable price at 1,690. Fengxi in Shanxi also keeps its price steady at 1,600. Jiangsu Hengsheng’s price remains unchanged at 1,730. In Anhui, Haoyuan’s prices range from 1,740 to 1,770 (down by 10). Boda in Inner Mongolia maintains a stable price at 1,510. Shaanxi Shanhua’s prices stay between 1,580 and 1,650 (stable), while Yankuang in Xinjiang keeps its price at 1,400 (stable). Urea prices remained stable today. Domestic demand showed no immediate changes; in some regions, transportation restrictions led to a slight increase in manufacturers’ inventories. In terms of open interest, it decreased slightly today, bringing an end to the consecutive increases since October. Both long and short positions among the top 20 traders declined. Urea prices are at a pivotal point with no clear direction. Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, waiting for suitable trading opportunities.