Urea price trends across China on March 12

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Urea price trends across China on March 12
Author/Source: Yuege Agricultural Supplies Network
Date: March 12, 2020
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The domestic urea market remains generally stable. As urea prices continue to rise, downstream buyers are becoming more cautious, and a wait-and-see attitude is prevailing in the market. Manufacturers are receiving few new orders; instead, they are primarily fulfilling advance orders. As a result, urea prices tend to remain steady. On the demand side, around 80% of the fertilizer preparation for agriculture has been completed so far. Orders from the factory-based agricultural sector are gradually decreasing. In the industrial sector, March is the peak production period for compound fertilizer factories; these companies operate at high capacity and thus have a high demand for raw material urea. The production activities of panel manufacturing enterprises are also increasing gradually, with suppliers making purchases based on their needs. On the supply side, as enterprises that underwent maintenance earlier gradually resume production, the overall operating rate of domestic urea producers continues to rise. Currently, daily output stands at around 160,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in the overall supply of urea. In the short term, the domestic urea market is expected to see mainly stable conditions with slight price increases. The domestic urea market is **dominant**, with the pricing of large-grain urea from some manufacturers in Shanxi declining. The resumption rate of downstream rubber sheet factories is gradually increasing; the resumption rate among compound fertilizer manufacturers is high, and demand for industrial urea continues to improve. In some areas, the amount of fertilizer prepared for spring plowing has decreased, leading to a weaker trading atmosphere in the agricultural urea market. As prices continue to rise, downstream buyers become less eager to make purchases, and a more cautious attitude prevails. In the short term, domestic urea prices are expected to remain at high levels with little change. Today, the price for medium-sized particles of Hualu Hengsheng is 1800 (stable), while large-sized particles cost 2020 (stable). In Hebei’s Dongguang region, small-sized particles are priced at 1800 (stable), and large-sized particles at 2040 (stable). Henan’s Xinxianxin offers particles at 1800 (stable). Shanxi’s Fengxi has a price of 1750 (stable). Shanxi’s Lanhua offers large-sized particles at 1920 (a 30% decrease in price). Jiangsu’s Linggu has a price of 1860 (stable). Anhui’s Haoyuan offers particles at 1830 (stable). Inner Mongolia’s Yiding has a price of 1680 (stable). Shaanxi’s Shanhua offers products for direct sale at 1810 (stable). Xinjiang’s Yankuang has a price of 1570 (stable). Anhui Hong Sifang’s small-grain urea is now available at 1,820 yuan per ton at the factory; prices are negotiable based on individual orders. The plant is operating normally, with a daily output of 1,000 tons; inventory is limited. Supplies are primarily provided to the surrounding areas; existing orders will continue to be fulfilled, with new orders added in an appropriate amount. The factory price for Henan Xinlianxin small-grain urea is 1,810 yuan per ton. The plant is operating normally, with a current daily production of 5,500 tons, of which more than 2,000 tons are ordinary urea. Previous orders continue to be fulfilled, with replenishments made as needed by downstream clients, resulting in steady shipments. The urea production facility in Henan Jin Kai is operating normally, with a daily output of around 4,000 tons. The ex-plant price today is 1,810 yuan per ton for medium-sized particles, and 1,970 yuan per ton for large-sized particles; the final price will be determined through negotiation. Primarily serving advance orders; currently, downstream clients place purchases as needed, so there is no pressure on shipments at the moment. Recently, the prevailing ex-factory prices among surrounding enterprises have been concentrated in the range of 1,780–1,800 yuan per ton. In Shandong province, the ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is 1,800–1,850 yuan per ton. In Linyi, the market price for such particles is 1,860–1,870 yuan per ton. In Heze, the purchase price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,850–1,860 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable for now. In Hebei province, the ex-factory price for small particles is around 1,800 yuan per ton, while the actual transaction price is around 1,790 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price for large particles is around 2,040 yuan per ton, with prices also remaining stable. In Henan province, the typical ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is 1,780–1,850 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Anhui province, the typical ex-factory price for small particles is around 1,820–1,850 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Jiangsu province, the typical price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,840–1,870 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Shanxi province, the export price for small particles is around 1,750 yuan per ton, while the price for large particles under new orders is around 1,920 yuan per ton. Some companies have reduced the price of large particles by 20 yuan per ton. In Inner Mongolia, the typical export price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,650–1,680 yuan per ton, while the price for large particles is around 1,870 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Hubei province, the typical ex-factory price for small particles is around 1,830–1,850 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Shaanxi province, the typical local sales price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,810 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Guangxi province, the typical wholesale price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,950–2,000 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Sichuan province, the ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,910–1,930 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Guangdong province, the typical wholesale price for small particles is around 1,930–1,960 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Xinjiang, the transaction price at the factory is around 1,450–1,500 yuan per ton, with prices stable. In Jilin province, the price for small particles containing urea is around 1,980 yuan per ton. Prices remain stable. The transaction price for small-grained urea in Heilongjiang is around 1,930–1,970 yuan per ton. Prices remain stable as well; the freight-cost-based price for small-grained urea in Liaoning is 1,900–1,950 yuan per ton, with the actual transaction price subject to negotiation. There is a 60-yuan per ton increase in prices. Prices in the northern markets and major production areas have seen a slight decline. On the demand side, in the early period, transactions in North China—the main market—declined, while demand in Northeast China remained stable. Agricultural demand in North China is now tapering off. Currently, downstream customers are primarily rushing to secure pre-scheduled shipments. In Liaoning and Jilin provinces, the preparation of spring compound fertilizer has progressed by over 50%. However, at current price levels, purchasing enthusiasm among compound fertilizer manufacturers in North China remains low. The recovery of plate mill operations is continuing to improve, but it remains below the level seen in the same period last year. Agriculture in MERCOSUR is developing slowly; there isn’t much new supply, and prices remain relatively stable. Hubei issued new guidelines for resuming work this afternoon, which is expected to boost demand to some extent. Overall, market demand remains intact; in the short term, the market will move from a state of significant regional disparities toward a more balanced situation, with prices likely to remain largely stable.