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The upward trend in fertilizer prices is slowing down. What’s going on with the market leader? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-12-08 Clicks: 5 Recent fluctuations in urea prices have not continued to rise due to restrictions on gas use, environmental regulations, labeling requirements, and government stockpiling; ammonia sulfate is no longer in short supply in the market either, with its prices slightly falling. Meanwhile, compound fertilizer manufacturers have successively raised their prices, although the timing and extent of these increases vary. Recently, many of them have reported difficulties in collecting payments, mainly because of prior orders… In the fertilizer market in December, there is a clear sense of a \"cold snap\" affecting prices, and even potassium chloride, whose prices started rising as early as August, has not been spared. Last weekend, I heard that in some ports in the north, individual traders were selling potassium chloride at lower prices, with a reduction of around 20–50 yuan per ton compared to the market average price. I immediately contacted relevant industry insiders, who confirmed this information. In fact, this isn’t the first time that potassium chloride prices have softened. Starting from the second half of November, port prices for potassium chloride entered a period of stability, during which there were a few transactions at lower prices. “Leading brother,” what’s going on here? According to most industry experts, whether it’s the fleeting low-price transactions earlier on or this more noticeable slight dip this time, the primary reason for these occurrences is simply the end-of-year factors; market-related reasons play only a secondary role. As the year comes to an end, those who haven’t met their targets should redouble their efforts. Those facing financial constraints should work on recovering funds. After all, the rise in potassium chloride prices has been somewhat artificially driven; there is a certain lag between price increases and actual transactions. Therefore, in order to achieve their goals, companies have no choice but to offer modest price cuts as a promotional measure. Speaking of which, a reduction of only 20-50 yuan isn’t really considered a significant drop at all. The leader is tired; let’s stop and have a few bites to rest. On the one hand, it only appears in certain areas; on the other hand, the decline is limited. Moreover, it cannot be ignored that domestic potassium remains in short supply and maintains a strong price. In December, the price at which 60% potassium from salt lakes is supplied to agents rose to 2020 yuan. One week after this new price was established, many agents have yet to decide on their new selling prices, due to shortages of supply. According to some agents who are able to make sales, the new transaction prices are likely to be between 2020 and 2050 yuan. It is understood that Salt Lake Company currently has almost no finished product inventory, and its bulk cargo inventory is also at low levels. Moreover, it is expected that winter periods of low operational capacity will set in in the second half of January and continue until the end of February. Given the actual situation in the port market, where year-end factors are only minor and temporary, and most of the supply remains in the hands of large players, many still believe that there is room for potassium chloride prices to rise in the future. You’re still my “big brother”! Furthermore, taking advantage of recent positive developments such as the rise in palm oil prices, major international suppliers are striving to drive up the spot market price of potassium chloride in Southeast Asia. Since April 30, when our country signed the current major contract, the price of large-granule potassium chloride in the Brazilian market has risen by over $30. In contrast, the landed price of standard-grade potassium in Southeast Asia has actually decreased by $5. It is now obvious that foreign companies are trying to use the strategy of \"attacking Wei to save Zhao.\" Once they succeed, considering China’s exchange rate fluctuations and rising domestic prices, it’s easy to imagine what will happen to the prices of large-scale contracts. Even if we wanted to negotiate and sign early on, so as to secure a price at international low levels, would foreign investors be willing to do so? The \"leader brother\" also knows the hardships he endures. So, will the price of potassium chloride really rise again? How big can space be? Is it still appropriate to purchase large quantities now? Should we run together? This article focuses for now only on the price support levels, but in light of the recent price fluctuations, I suggest purchasing more stock when prices are low. For most end-users, it is not advisable to stock up in large quantities; we will discuss the specific negative factors later. (Adu)