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Phosphorus ore prices to rise, benefiting monoammonium phosphate again. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2021-03-15. Clicks: 3. Recent rumors suggested that phosphorus ore prices would increase by 100–150 yuan per ton; however, after verification, it turned out that these were merely suggestions from some industry insiders. While there will be an increase in phosphorus ore prices, it won’t be that high. In fact, the expected increase is around 30–50 yuan per ton. For now, the industry can accept an increase of 30 yuan. It is reported that the price of 28% purity phosphorus ore in Hubei has risen slightly to 410–420 yuan per ton upon arrival at factories there. In fact, phosphate rock, being a non-renewable resource, has indeed had relatively low prices in recent years; however, a sudden increase of over 100 yuan is not realistic. Taking 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate as an example, if the price of the phosphate rock rises by 100 yuan, the total cost of monoammonium phosphate will increase by 170 yuan. A smaller increase would likely be more acceptable to most people in the industry. So why is the price of phosphate rock rising? As a non-renewable resource, the price of ore remains at relatively low levels throughout the year. Coupled with factors such as unstable prices of urea and sulfur, these have led to a decline in confidence in ammonium phosphate within the industry. Finding new positive factors to boost market sentiment is therefore a way to stabilize the ammonium phosphate market; it is understandable that phosphorus ore, whose price is generally stable, sees a slight increase during this period. The rise in phosphate rock prices has indeed brought certain benefits to monoammonium phosphate. At the beginning of the week, pricing by some monoammonium phosphate manufacturers continued to rise; currently, the ex-plant price for 60% powdered monoammonium phosphate from small manufacturers in Yunnan has risen to 2700 yuan, while the ex-plant price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate from large manufacturers in Anhui has increased by 100 yuan to 2500 yuan. The ex-plant price for 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate from manufacturers in Henan is also 2700 yuan. However, manufacturers are still cautious about taking on new orders, and the high pricing by some of them is mainly due to a large number of orders yet to be fulfilled, preventing them from accepting large quantities of new orders at the moment. It can be seen that the price situation for ammonium sulfate at the factories is fairly good. However, it has been learned recently that some traders are selling the ammonium sulfate they have in stock. The actual selling price of 55% powdered ammonium sulfate in Hubei is between 2300 and 2350 yuan; such prices are not offered by the factories themselves. The premium selling price for 55% powdered ammonium sulfate in Hubei is 2600 yuan, while smaller factories charge around 2500 yuan. These prices remain relatively stable, mainly due to the demand from orders placed. However, the domestic and international demand from enterprises has slowed down compared to previous trends. It is reported that there are few inquiries for exports at present, and deals at an FOB price of $480–$490 for 55% granular ammonium nitrate are becoming less common. Current export orders are mostly for April and May; as for international demand, it is approaching the off-season, and although there will still be demand thereafter, the volume is likely to be low. Recently, the price of sulfur as a raw material has been unstable, with an overall downward trend. Domestic spot traders lack confidence; the price of Puguang sulfur continued to fall this week, further exacerbating the cautious attitude in the market. Downstream phosphate-ammonium factories do not yet have any intention of making large-scale purchases of it. Even if the electronic trading prices rose for some reason, it is still difficult to reverse the downward trend of sulfur prices significantly. Towards the end of the week, sulfur prices saw a slight rebound, but confidence among industry players remains low. Currently, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River port is around 1300 yuan, while the prices at the Wanzhou port and Dazhou facilities for Puguang sulfur are 1450 yuan and 1390 yuan respectively. In summary, the price trend for monoammonium phosphate is weakening. Although rising prices for phosphate rock could bring some positive effects to the market, slowing demand and a decline in sulfur prices mean that there is insufficient support for rising prices of monoammonium phosphate. However, in the short term, factories will likely maintain stable prices due to a large volume of orders pending shipment. (Zhao Hongye)