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In 2025, China’s exports of synthetic ammonia saw explosive growth, with the total annual export volume reaching 338,600 tons – a surge of 277.48% compared to 89,700 tons in the same period of 2024. This annual export volume represented the highest level seen in nearly a decade. In 2025, China’s exports of synthetic ammonia saw explosive growth, with the total annual export volume reaching 338,600 tons – a surge of 277.48% compared to 89,700 tons in the same period of 2024. This figure represented the highest level of exports in nearly a decade. This has led to a significant decline in the import volume of synthetic ammonia by 2025; the total imports for that year amounted to 348,500 tons, a 25.96% decrease compared to 470,700 tons in 2024. The total import volume has been declining for three consecutive years. Looking at the domestic synthetic ammonia market environment, by 2025 the total production capacity of synthetic ammonia in China is expected to exceed 76.2 million tons per year, with an annual output of 67.5 million tons, representing a 6.5% increase compared to the previous year. As the supply and demand balance in China becomes further disrupted, the pressure to sell synthetic ammonia increases significantly. In China, coal is the main raw material used for producing synthetic ammonia; as coal prices continue to fall, the cost of producing synthetic ammonia decreases. To ensure smooth sales, synthetic ammonia manufacturers tend to set prices around the cost level, resulting in domestic prices being lower than import prices. This situation leads to an inversion between the import price of ammonia and domestic market prices, leaving traders with no profit margin and further reducing import demand. At the same time, domestic prices remain volatile at low levels, and as the gap with international market prices widens, the opportunities for arbitrage increase; thus, exports become another important channel for dealing with excess production capacity. From an international market perspective, in 2025, due to high natural gas costs and the shipping crisis in the Red Sea, supply in key synthetic ammonia-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia was constrained. At the same time, the recovery of global agriculture increased demand for nitrogen fertilizers, leading to higher import demands in regions such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa. This concentrated reduction in supply resulted in imbalances between supply and demand across different regions, creating periods of high demand that drove up international synthetic ammonia prices. Overall, the ample capacity for synthetic ammonia production in China in 2025 kept prices at relatively low levels for an extended period; the inverted relationship between import and domestic prices meant that imports no longer held an advantage. Meanwhile, rising international shipping costs and a reduction in the regions from which supplies came from created significant opportunities for export arbitrage, leading to a sharp increase in China’s synthetic ammonia exports and a significant decline in imports in 2025. It is expected that in 2026, China’s synthetic ammonia sector will maintain a pattern of net exports characterized by growing exports and low imports, although the growth rate of export volumes will slow down. Domestically, synthetic ammonia production capacity will continue to increase at a steady pace by 2026. The cost advantage of coal-based synthetic ammonia, along with improved port storage and transportation facilities, will support exports, and export volumes are expected to keep rising. Meanwhile, the ample domestic supply combined with the lack of competitive prices for imported ammonia will continue to put pressure on import prices, making it difficult for imports to improve. Internationally, by 2026, the maintenance and shutdown of facilities in regions such as the Middle East and the Americas will gradually resume, which will ease international supply shortages. However, a narrowing of the price gap between domestic and international markets will be unfavorable for domestic exports. It is also necessary to pay attention to the development of green ammonia production capacity in China. By 2026, some companies in East Asia, Europe, and Southeast Asia have clear plans to import green ammonia from China or have already reached cooperation agreements; this could open up new opportunities for the export of synthetic ammonia. Going forward, it will be important to monitor the price difference between synthetic ammonia domestically and internationally, as well as the progress of reviving synthetic ammonia production facilities overseas.