Why can China survive the turmoil in the international coal market?

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　　The global coal market is in turmoil again. March and April each year are traditionally the off-season for coal consumption. However, affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the international coal price index rose against the trend during the same period this year, with the maximum increase exceeding 20%. In sharp contrast to the sharp fluctuations in the international market, China's coal market shows a stable trend: Prices have increased slightly, inventory is sufficient, and supply and demand are stable. As a major coal country, how can China survive the storm in the international coal market? 　　The core trigger of this round of rapid rise in international coal prices is the continued tension in the Middle East. Since the end of February, geopolitical conflicts have been escalating. Shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's core oil and gas trade channel, has been disrupted. Production of important oil and gas countries in the Middle East has been restricted and exports have been blocked. International oil and gas prices have risen sharply in response, and the substitution effect of oil and gas has quickly emerged. Global demand for coal and electricity has rebounded, directly pushing up coal prices. 　　At the same time, the international coal supply side continues to be disrupted. Indonesia, the main producer, has encountered continued bad weather, hindering coal mine production and inland water transportation, and tightening spot supply. ； Some coal-producing countries have introduced export control policies, limiting global coal trade flows. The resonance between supply and demand has caused the international coal price, which should have weakened in the off-season, to get out of the abnormal trend of "not weak in the off-season". 　　For China, there is theoretically obvious transmission pressure from the sharp rise in international coal prices. Although my country is a major coal producer, it still needs to import hundreds of millions of tons of coal every year to supplement demand. International market fluctuations can easily affect domestic costs and price expectations through import channels. However, international coal prices have risen sharply this year, while domestic prices have only risen slightly, and price transmission has been obviously "impeded." Behind this, China's continuously improving coal supply and price stabilization system has played an important role. 　　Looking at production, production capacity is released in an orderly manner to build a solid supply foundation. From January to March, the national industrial raw coal output above designated size was 1.2 billion tons. Since April, the national average daily dispatched coal output has continued to exceed 12.5 million tons. Different from the past "flood irrigation" style of increasing production, current coal production pays more attention to "quality" and "stability". The five major coal bases have made precise efforts, modernized large-scale coal mines have become the main supply, and production efficiency, safety guarantee and supply stability have been significantly enhanced. Transportation channels such as railways and ports are constantly improving, and the "West-East Coal Transportation" and "North-South Coal Transportation" are efficient and smooth, providing solid logistics support for ensuring cross-regional supply. The competent authorities keep a close eye on production indicators, organize scientifically, and dispatch in an orderly manner to avoid overproduction and violations, while ensuring the full release of production capacity and stabilizing the basic supply base from the source. 　　Look at the inventory, store coal and prepare enough "food and grass" to enhance buffering resilience. Inventory is the "reservoir" for energy security and the "stabilizer" to deal with market fluctuations. As of April 23, 190 million tons of coal were stored in unified power plants across the country, with a usable period of 32 days, which is at a historically high level. This means that even if there is an extreme supply interruption, the power plant can run smoothly for more than a month, buying enough time for emergency adjustments. At the same time, my country continues to promote the construction of a coal production capacity reserve system and build a batch of reserve capacity in coal bases that can achieve "flexible production." Normal production is carried out as usual, and when the market is tight, increments are quickly released to make supply more flexible. Sufficient inventory allows the market to fear short-term fluctuations. 　　Looking at prices, long-term agreements lock in the basic market and stabilize market risks. Price stability is the core goal of ensuring supply and the key to people's livelihood and economic stability. At present, the domestic coal market has formed a price structure in which "mid- and long-term contracts are the mainstay, and spot adjustments are supplemented." The "base price + floating price" model limits prices to a reasonable range, allowing coal companies to have stable sales and power plants to have stable supply. In March, the long-term agreement price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, almost the same as last month, stabilizing the basic supply of thermal coal nationwide. 　　The sharp fluctuations in international coal prices and the steady performance of the Chinese market once again confirm a simple truth: Energy security cannot be bought or waited for, it can only be firmly grasped by oneself. 　　my country's resource endowment of being "rich in coal, poor in oil and little gas" determines that coal's status as "ballast stone" in the energy system will not change in the long term. We must be soberly aware that there are still variables in international geopolitics, and oil and gas price fluctuations may continue to affect the coal price relationship. The global energy transformation is accelerating, but fossil energy is still irreplaceable in the short term. Ensuring a stable supply of coal is not only a practical need to stabilize growth and prices, but also a basic prerequisite to support the gradual replacement of new energy and achieve a smooth transformation. 　　Facing the future, China's energy security path is becoming increasingly clear. On the one hand, we will continue to improve the coal production, supply, storage and marketing system, improve the level of clean and efficient utilization of coal, consolidate and improve the bottom-line guarantee capability, and make the "ballast stone" more stable ； On the other hand, we should accelerate the development of new energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaics, and hydrogen energy, promote the green transformation of the energy structure, and fundamentally reduce the sensitivity to international market fluctuations. 　　Wind and waves test concentration. Practice has proven that as long as we insist on basing ourselves on national conditions, make systematic plans, implement precise policies, and firmly hold the initiative on energy security in our own hands, we will surely be able to build a solid energy foundation for high-quality economic and social development in a complex and ever-changing international environment. (author: Wang Yichen)