The sharp drop in crude oil prices does not change the expectation of price increases; however, it will still lead to a cooling down in the refined oil market

Since the National Day holiday fell during this pricing period, the closing price of international crude oil was included in the calculation data, although it does not fall within the actual calculation period in terms of time. Therefore, the continuous rise in crude oil prices earlier on created a strong atmosphere of price increases, and currently the base price of crude oil has largely stabilized. This means that a sharp drop in oil prices on any given day cannot change the expectations of price increases in the refined oil market. As of the close on October 12, the fifth trading day, the change rate for crude oil was 3.74%, resulting in an increase of 90 yuan per ton. The price adjustment period will begin at 24:00 on October 20.

Given the current situation in China’s refined oil market, driven by expectations of price increases, most of the major domestic sellers have raised their selling prices, with diesel seeing the largest increase. Driven by a bullish sentiment, suppliers have also carried out stock replenishment to varying degrees; in some cases, large-scale purchases were made, resulting in currently high levels of inventory in the market and a lack of willingness among suppliers to make further purchases. Therefore, although this sharp drop in crude oil prices has not changed the expectations of price increases, it has acted as another blow to an already not-so-optimistic market. Expectations of price increases still exist, but industry players are not optimistic about the future market. It is expected that domestic refined oil prices may see another slight decline in the near future, leading to a further slowdown in market transactions.