History repeats itself: profits from deep processing are gradually entering a \"cold winter\" phase

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This week, there were no signs of improvement in the profits of the main units involved in the deep processing of olefins, with the degree of negative profitability continuing to increase. According to data based on market average prices, the average gross profit for alkylation units this week was 23.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 78.8% compared to the previous week ； The degree of inversion in the isomerization units is increasing, resulting in an average loss of around 90 yuan per ton ； Each unit of the aromatization plant incurs a loss of 260–320 yuan per ton, and it is difficult for such plants to change this loss situation. This week, the oil market has continued to struggle to overcome negative pressures, with prices remaining weak and stagnant. The decline in prices of refined products has further heightened downstream concerns regarding blended feedstocks. Despite the persistent high prices of raw gas and thus high raw material costs for companies, this has not been able to reverse the downward trend in the prices of alkylation products and MTBE. This week, the transaction price of alkylation products remained within the range of 5,000–5,100 yuan per ton, while the oversupply in the MTBE market led to panic among buyers, causing its price to drop to 4,700–4,800 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4% or 200 yuan per ton. On the one hand, the weakness in the oil products market has suppressed demand for blending raw materials; on the other hand, the increased operation of Yantai Wanhua’s PO/MTBE plants has accelerated the decline in market prices. Even though the Yuhuang dehydrogenation plant is shut down, there is still no significant support for the market. Although the costs associated with advanced processing equipment fluctuate, it is more important to keep operations running during winter. Moreover, a higher level of processing volume helps to offset production costs, so the workload for manufacturers operating this week remains relatively stable. The demand for raw gas drives up prices, and this week the prevailing market price remained high, with fluctuations of around 50 yuan per ton. In the Shandong region, transaction prices ranged from 4100 to 4350 yuan per ton, while in North China the prevailing price was between 3800 and 4180 yuan per ton. Currently, the international crude oil market remains in a range-bound pattern, with an increasing likelihood of lower retail prices for refined products. This does not provide any positive signals for the deep-processing industry, and there are also no clear indications regarding the liquefied gas market; as a result, the market trend remains stagnant, and deep-processing companies may find it difficult to reverse their losses. As in the same period last year, the alkylation and isomerization units were also on the verge of breaking even. Against the backdrop of a sluggish oil market during winter, the main factor that helped to reverse losses was the rise in international oil prices. However, this year the range of fluctuations in crude oil prices is limited, and the likelihood of a significant short-term rebound is also low.