Current operating status of methanol-to-olefins plants
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Currently, oil prices remain at low levels, significantly reducing the cost competitiveness of methanol-to-olefins plants. How are the various devices performing currently? Are they all operating at full load throughout the year? What is the utilization rate? Has any sea traveler done any statistics on this? Also, how do various devices deal with the issue of low oil prices, and what strategies do they employ? For example, processing by-products from deep processing; adjusting the current product mix to produce more ethylene and less propylene; developing downstream applications for propylene to produce high-end grade polymers, etc.? All marine friends are welcome to help by leaving replies; whatever you know is fine, and there will be rewards for replying! :)
Driving is not allowed here; it’s probably for efficiency reasons
In fact, when considering low oil prices, it is also necessary to take into account the low levels of coal prices as well. If the coal is one’s own resource, then coal-to-olefins production can still be profitable; but if the coal has to be purchased, then factors such as costs and depreciation of transportation equipment make it more difficult to turn a profit. For downstream products, my personal opinion is that the fine chemicals route is recommended. The aromatics produced from coal-based olefins can be used to produce triphenyl; for liquefied petroleum gas, aromatization is feasible (domestic technologies already exist, such as the technology developed by Dalian University of Technology). As for propylene, it is already a relatively mature chemical product; thus, each case must be handled on its own merits. These are personal opinions for reference only.
Well, that’s a crucial question, but I don’t have the power to change the market. All I can say is that this approach can help you minimize risks, as the market and costs keep changing – it ultimately depends on what people do!
Differentiated competition is the best way to survive; if one does what others are doing to make money, they will end up destroying themselves as well as those others.
Reducing production costs is the primary factor for a company’s survival； Both petrochemical and coal chemical industries are greatly influenced by market conditions. However, by controlling the source of raw materials, one can make a profit regardless of how market conditions change. For example, at Shenhua Baotou, no matter how high the methanol price is, it still remains profitable for the production of olefin products. Because the source of the raw material—coal—is under their control. Furthermore, the impact of raw material prices can be addressed by carrying out further processing of products to develop fine chemicals. From the cost of coal to the production of fine chemical products, the company remains profitable. Although only a certain part in the middle is at a loss.
I heard that Baotou is operating at 110% of its load capacity, with good economic results
If olefins are produced from purchased methanol, what is the current profitability?
It is difficult to ensure profitability with a single process; the advantage of integrated factories lies in reducing transportation costs. In particular, once it reaches end products such as polyolefins, there is no need for hazardous material transportation. Additionally, with the overall volume of transportation decreasing, transportation costs are significantly reduced.
For companies that purchase methanol from external sources, it’s rather difficult to make a profit. The cost of raw materials accounts for 70%-80% of the total production costs; if only ethylene and propylene products are produced for sale without further processing. It’s good enough to be able to operate normally. Raw material prices are greatly affected by market conditions; moreover, we are in an era of low oil prices, so there isn’t much competitiveness. If further processing is carried out to produce fine chemical products, there can also be a modest profit.