Seeking help with heat load calculation

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I seek guidance from experts: in the design of vaporization cooling systems for heating furnaces, when calculating the heat load of various circulation circuits, comparing the empirical formulas provided in relevant literature with theoretical heat transfer calculations yields results that differ by an order of magnitude. The theoretical calculation process includes Q1, which represents the conductive heat transfer between the water channels and the refractory materials； Q2. Conductive heat transfer of water beam anchors ； Q3. Heat transfer in tubular boiling ； Process 1: Q1+Q2=X*10^5 ； Based on these calculations, the order of magnitude is significantly smaller than the actual value ； Process 2: Q1+Q2+Q3=Y*10^6; the result obtained in this way corresponds to the situation where most of the refractory materials in the water beam fall off, which does not match the assumption for the early stage of furnace operation ； The boiling heat transfer coefficient involved in Process 2 is given by the empirical formula k=45.8△t^2.33*p^0.5 (W/m2·°C) ； p is 0.1 * drum pressure (MPa), △t is the temperature difference between the inner wall of the water beam tube and the water temperature (°C); the area of the inner wall of the water beam is used thereafter ； If this calculation method is incorrect, please indicate the correct way to calculate it.