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Analysis and forecast of calcium carbide price trends, May 27, 2016. China Chemical Products Network. This week, domestic calcium carbide prices saw upward fluctuations; at the beginning of the week, the ex-plant prices offered by major manufacturers were 2,220 yuan per ton, while by the end of the week they had risen to 2,230 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.45% on a weekly basis. Compared with the same period last year, these prices were down by 10.54%. As of May 26, the calcium carbide commodity index was 58.43, remaining unchanged from the previous day. It was 42.33% lower than the peak level of 101.31 (reached on 2011-09-26), and 5.30% higher than the lowest level of 55.49 recorded on March 14, 2016. (Note: The period refers to September 1, 2011, to the present.) Market Analysis: This week, the calcium carbide market remained stagnant. Affected by supply and demand imbalances, some companies raised prices slightly as a way to adjust strategically; overall, there was little fluctuation in market prices. In Shaanxi, the ex-factory price of major manufacturers was around 2100–2200 yuan per ton, in Inner Mongolia it was around 2200–2300 yuan per ton, and in Ningxia it was around 2200–2350 yuan per ton. Actual transaction prices varied, and the supply of calcium carbide in various regions was satisfactory ； Industry chain: The market for coke, a key upstream product, remains stable at high levels; the average price for major producers is 913.75 yuan per ton, representing a 9.43% increase on a year-on-year basis. The operating rates of downstream steel mills and coking plants remain high, while coal inventory continues to decline. It is expected that coke prices will continue to rise, with increased support from the cost of calcium carbide ； This week, the market price of the downstream product PVC saw a downward adjustment. At the beginning of the week, the average pricing offered by major manufacturers was 5,091.67 yuan per ton, while by the end of the week it rose to 5,108.33 yuan per ton, representing a 0.33% increase on a weekly basis and a 14.13% decrease on an annual basis. Traders offered slightly higher prices, but downstream buyers were somewhat resistant to such high costs; as a result, actual transactions still involved price discounts. It is expected that PVC’s market trend in the coming period will be one of weak fluctuations ； The market price of trichloroethylene has seen a slight decline. At the beginning of the week, the average price quoted by major manufacturers was 4,940 yuan per ton, while by the end of the week it dropped to 4,900 yuan per ton, representing a 0.81% decrease on a weekly basis and an 0.82% increase on an annual basis. In Inner Mongolia, the ex-plant price of trichloroethylene is around 5,000 yuan per ton, in Ningxia it’s about 4,600 yuan per ton, and in Shandong it’s around 4,800 yuan per ton. Due to overcapacity and weak demand from downstream industries, it is expected that the market will remain stagnant in the coming period ； Industry: Affected by unstable operations of calcium carbide manufacturers, their deliberate attempts to raise prices, and the scattered maintenance activities of downstream PVC manufacturers, the calcium carbide market is characterized by tight supply and uneven distribution. The amount of material available for unloading is limited, while downstream PVC manufacturers are eager to make purchases; as a result, calcium carbide manufacturers can sell their products smoothly. Some chlor-alkali manufacturers have raised their prices in an effort to secure more supply. Future outlook: At present, the PVC market has seen a slight improvement as manufacturers have attempted to raise prices. However, since there has been no substantial change in the supply-demand dynamics of calcium carbide, and moreover the operating rate of calcium carbide production facilities has increased leading to an increase in supply, the supply-demand balance has been restored. Analysts at Business Society believe that calcium carbide prices will remain stable next week; the actual trend will depend on the operating rates of calcium carbide producers and the maintenance activities of PVC manufacturers.