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Recently, although crude oil futures prices at home and abroad have stabilized and rebounded, upward pressures remain. The underlying logic of the global crude oil market has shifted from being driven by geopolitical factors to being determined by fundamental factors; the pattern of ample supply and weak demand is becoming increasingly apparent, resulting in downward pressure on oil prices in the medium term. An oversupply situation is now a widely accepted fact. Although OPEC+ announced in early November a suspension of production increases for the first quarter of 2026, it had already increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day by then, fully reversing the previous cuts in production. Furthermore, the implementation rate of production increases in some member countries is below 80%, and there remains pressure to release the remaining capacity. In other words, OPEC+’s current strategic adjustments have failed to reverse the trend of oversupply. As a result, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecasts for global crude oil supply surpluses for six consecutive months. It is expected that by 2026, global daily supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels, with a record-level surplus becoming inevitable. Furthermore, non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries have become the main contributors to the supply increase. U.S. crude oil production remained at its historical peak of 13.862 million barrels per day, with improved technical efficiency in shale oil extraction and greater flexibility in capital spending contributing to production levels that consistently exceeded expectations. In addition, production in countries such as Brazil and Norway has also reached new highs repeatedly. Despite facing sanctions and drone attacks, Russia’s refinery processing capacity may drop from 5.25 million barrels per day to around 5 million barrels per day; however, it manages to maintain its export capabilities through shadow fleets and non-dollar settlements. Looking ahead, the global crude oil market is expected to be dominated in 2026 by the combined effect of \"OPEC+ increasing production to capture market share\" and \"non-OPEC+ countries continuing to raise production.\" The supply strategy adjustments made by OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries could lead to a cycle of \"increased production—falling prices—production cuts.\" Weak demand growth: The slow recovery of the global economy is limiting energy consumption. The IEA predicts that global crude oil demand will increase by only 800,000 to 1.2 million barrels per day in the coming years, which is significantly lower than the historical average. Weak demand in European and American economies is particularly evident; a slowdown in industrial production and a decline in consumer spending have led to low consumption of refined oil products. Although demand in the Asian market remains resilient, it is difficult to offset the overall decline in global demand. The willingness to replenish inventory in the downstream industry is low; purchases are primarily driven by essential needs, which further exacerbates the weak demand situation. Driven by weak demand growth, global oil inventories have risen to their highest level in nearly four years, with U.S. crude oil inventories continuing to increase. The forward prices of WTI crude oil futures are higher than those of near-term contracts, which directly reflects an ample supply in the short term. Meanwhile, global offshore oil reserve levels continued to rise, with an additional 92 million barrels added in October. Currently, nearly 200 million barrels of crude oil are stranded at sea, and the excess supply cannot be absorbed by the end markets, continuing to put pressure on oil prices. Overall, the imbalance between supply and demand in the current crude oil market is irreversible, with high inventory levels and capital outflows continuing to dampen market sentiment. Although OPEC+’s suspension of production increases reflects an intention to stabilize prices, it is difficult to reverse the trend of surplus in the medium term. Geopolitical events can only trigger a technical rebound; they cannot reverse the downward trend determined by fundamental factors. In the coming period, domestic and international crude oil futures prices are likely to remain in a volatile downward trend; key factors to watch include OPEC+ policy changes, the safety of Russian export facilities, changes in global refinery profits, and the pace of economic recovery. In the short term, there is a need to be vigilant against an escalation in geopolitical risks that could trigger a rebound in prices; however, in the medium to long term, the weak trend in the crude oil market is unlikely to change fundamentally.