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According to Sinochem New Network, \"Under the influence of various factors, international oil prices in 2025 will exhibit more complex fluctuations, with the average price level dropping significantly compared to 2024.\" It is expected that fundamental changes in the international crude oil market will continue through 2026; fundamental factors will drive oil prices. Under a situation of ample supply and demand, downward pressure on oil prices will increase, with the average prices of Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil likely to range between $53–$63 per barrel and $49–$59 per barrel, respectively. ”This is the news released at the press conference for the 2026 Energy Economy Forecast and Outlook Research Report, held in Beijing on January 11. At the meeting, Professor Zhao Lutao, deputy director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at Beijing Institute of Technology, said that in the first half of 2025, global geopolitical tensions were high, and various positive factors failed to provide strong support for rising oil prices; as a result, oil prices showed a trend of \"rapid increases, swift declines, and subsequent downward fluctuations.\" In the second half of the year, the international crude oil market was dominated by expectations of supply surplus. Under the combined pressure of OPEC+’s continued production increases and weak global demand, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range at low levels with little upward momentum, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices dropping to their annual lows of $58.92 per barrel and $55.27 per barrel respectively. “Overall, the volatility of crude oil price spreads in 2025 was significantly lower than that in 2024; the average daily spread for the whole year was 3.39 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 13.62% compared to 3.92 dollars per barrel in 2024. ”Zhao Lutao said. “Fundamentally, against the backdrop of oversupply, global crude oil inventories are expected to continue rising in 2026. Strategic stock replenishment driven by energy security aims to optimize the inventory structure and absorb some of the excess supply, but the pressure of accumulating global inventories may persist, exerting downward pressure on international oil prices. ”Zhao Lutao explained that, on the one hand, as the global economic growth rate slows down and the pace of energy transition accelerates, it is difficult to provide strong support for an increase in demand for crude oil, resulting in insufficient momentum for oil prices to rise by 2026. On the other hand, in order to maintain stability in the oil market, OPEC+ has shown a tendency to temporarily suspend its planned increases in production, with adjustments to the pace of production to be made based on market conditions. The ongoing expansion of supply capacity among countries outside OPEC+ will become the main driving force behind growth in global crude oil supply and a key source of supply-side optimism, leading to continued easing in the supply situation in the international crude oil market. “From a non-fundamental perspective, the U.S. dollar index is set to continue weakening in 2026, with pessimism persisting in the market; gold prices will remain high. Multiple factors are increasing the uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts are likely to intensify, further contributing to short-term volatility in oil prices. ”Zhao Lutao analyzed.