Weekly Review of Liquid Ammonia: Overall trend is relatively positive

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Weekly Review of Liquid Ammonia: Overall trend relatively positive. Author/Source: Date: 2017-01-22. Clicks: 24. This week, the overall trend in China’s liquid ammonia market was relatively positive; with the exception of the Lubei region in Shandong, where prices dropped significantly due to increased exports of liquid ammonia and relatively high prices prior to this period, prices in most areas showed a steady upward trend. In the Hebei region, the prevailing upward price range is 20–50 yuan. In southern Jiangsu, prices have increased by 50 yuan, while in northern Jiangsu prices first rose and then fell; overall, there is not much pressure on sales. In the two Hubei provinces, prices have risen significantly, by 150–200 yuan. In Henan, prices have increased by 50–100 yuan. In Anhui, the supply of goods is relatively limited, resulting in a clear upward trend in prices. Currently, the prevailing acceptance price in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 2400–2410 yuan per ton, while the price at the factory in Cangzhou is 2560 yuan per ton ； In northern Shandong, the cash price is 2,430–2,540 yuan per ton, while in the Linyi area, the price upon delivery after acceptance is 2,700–2,720 yuan per ton ； In Jiangsu province, the mainstream price for goods delivered upon acceptance in northern Jiangsu is 2720–2770 yuan per ton, while in southern Jiangsu it is 2910–2960 yuan per ton ； In northern Anhui, the prevailing price for acceptance is 2,670–2,730 yuan per ton, while in southern Anhui the prevailing cash price is 2,760 yuan per ton ； The regional mainstream price in Henan is 2,480–2,520 yuan per ton ； The prevailing price for liquid ammonia in Hubei is 2,850–2,900 yuan per ton, with actual transaction prices ranging from 2,830–2,850 yuan per ton ； The prevailing price in Hunan is around 3,000–3,050 yuan per ton. 　　Future market forecast: With the spring holiday approaching, retailers are making regular restocking, and companies in most regions are not facing any sales pressures for now. After experiencing price declines in the northern Jiangsu market, strong willingness to hold prices may emerge due to favorable bidding prices from large-scale retailers in this round; coupled with an obvious bullish trend in the Anhui market, prices are likely to return to stability ； Due to a short shutdown of the plant in Anqing, Anhui region, and the lack of stock at Haoyuan yesterday, supply in this area has become significantly tighter compared to before. Some end-users are considering purchasing supplies from Jiangsu region to meet their immediate needs. It is expected that prices in Anhui will rise by 50-60 yuan in the coming days ； The operating load of large-scale facilities in Hunan region continues to decline, and some small-scale terminals have no stock available; prices are expected to keep rising going forward ； Prices in Hubei region remain stable with slight upward trends, and supported by steady ammonia purchases by large end-user phosphate-based fertilizer companies, prices are likely to stay at high levels. As the festive season approaches, subsequent logistics and transportation operations may be disrupted by holidays, which constitutes a significant negative factor for the market. However, compared to previous years, this year’s liquid ammonia market could prove to be the most favorable year for companies in terms of sales. (Bai Chuan)