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Recent trends in the domestic methanol market Author/Source: Date: 10-11-2019 Clicks: 2 After the National Day holiday, prices in the domestic methanol market rose significantly; as of October 10, the average price in this market was 2,392 yuan per ton. The price increased by 14.56% on a month-on-month basis compared to the same period last month, and decreased by 27.43% on a year-on-year basis compared to the same period last year. II. Market Analysis Product: Methanol inventory in the major production areas in the northwest is at low levels; manufacturers currently face no pressure to sell, so prices remain strong. After the holiday, the downstream markets began to recover gradually; some downstream enterprises actively restocked their supplies. The methanol market in the mainland saw smooth sales, and the strong performance of the main production areas in the northwest contributed to this trend. Traders were optimistic about market conditions, and prices continued to rise in markets such as the Bohai Rim and Huaihai region. Regarding ports, the port market is showing strength, there is good buying interest in the market, and operators have fairly positive expectations for the future. In terms of facilities, a 600,000-ton/year methanol plant in Gansu was restarted, a 600,000-ton/year plant in Shaanxi was restarted, and several plants that had been shut down earlier were restarted in Shanxi. Industry chain: Formaldehyde: The domestic formaldehyde market has seen a slight decline, while the price of the raw material methanol remains stable, providing support in terms of costs. However, sales at formaldehyde factories in Shandong are still moderate, and negotiation conditions have weakened. Some large manufacturers in Hebei are not operating at full capacity and continue to use up their inventory of raw materials; prices remain stable for now. Yet costs are likely to rise rather than fall, so in the short term, the domestic formaldehyde market is likely to see only partial price increases. graph.100ppi.com (500×300) Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is showing signs of weakness in certain areas. Due to an overall increase in supply after the holiday, some acetate manufacturers that rely on spot supplies saw a significant rise in their inventory levels during the break. In order to stimulate sales, prices have dropped in the past two days, which has had a negative impact on the attitudes of industry players; some traders holding inventory also reduced their prices to match market conditions, leading to a weakening trend in the main market. The situation in the northern downstream areas has not yet fully returned to normal; currently, the operating rate of acetic acid plants is high, some factories are actively shipping their products, and industry players are somewhat pessimistic about future prospects. However, at present most acetic acid plants do not face inventory pressures, and it is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will show a steady decline in the short term. graph.100ppi.com (500×300) Dimethyl ether: The market price of dimethyl ether has seen an overall increase; trading volumes remain decent. The average price of dimethyl ether in North China is 3,407 yuan per ton, representing a rise of 53 yuan per ton compared to the price from the previous working day. In terms of prices, there was an overall increase in prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, the southwest region, and the areas along the rivers, while prices remained relatively stable in some areas. Market prices continued to rise; manufacturers reported no significant difficulties in selling their products, and the trading atmosphere in the market was positive. Some manufacturers resumed operations today, and due to low inventory levels, prices were high. graph.100ppi.com (500×300) III. Future Outlook Business Society’s view: Currently, there is little pressure on inventory levels in the market; manufacturers remain confident, and demand from downstream sectors is gradually recovering, resulting in a positive overall trading atmosphere in the market. Methanol analysts at Business Society predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market is likely to maintain a price-supporting trend; in the longer term, attention will still need to be paid to factors such as the attitudes of downstream users, safety regulations, the operation status of olefin plants, port inventory levels, freight rates, and futures trends. The retail price of methanol in southern Shandong remains stable at around 2400–2410 yuan per ton, with many producers choosing to wait and maintain current prices ； Traders are quoting around 2,390–2,400 yuan per ton without invoices; the pace of restocking has slowed down slightly, and the trading atmosphere is rather mediocre.