Synthetic ammonia: Trends in the international market **; logistics costs remain crucial

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Synthetic ammonia: Trends in the international market **; logistics costs remain a key factor. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2020-01-20. Clicks: 565. Supply issues are once again becoming more prominent in the ammonia market, despite disruptions in transportation in some production areas. Last week, Gemlik conducted a survey of the spot market; as a result, suppliers from the Caribbean region submitted two quotes, and Yara won the contract, with delivery scheduled for the end of January next year. Algeria’s exports continued to decline significantly, but there is ample short-term demand in other regions, with supplies from France, Egypt, and the UK available in the market. Fertiglobe purchased a Polish cargo ship from Grupa Azoty this week to transport goods to Yara in Germany. The market east of the Suez Canal is more balanced, as it is dealing with the ongoing power outages in Australia’s Pilbara region. Logistics costs remain the main factor driving price increases, and some shippers still face difficulties in obtaining fuel that meets IMOC compliance requirements. 　　Market-driven factors: 1. Supply from Trinidad: Yara will deliver 2.325 million tons of spot goods to Turkey at the end of January/ or early February via the Yara Aesa ship, to be delivered to Gemlik. 2. Resumption of exports from Sillamae: Production at Acron’s plant in Novgorod is currently operating well; there were some production issues at the end of last year. 　　3. India refuses to raise prices: Indian importer Fact was unwilling to pay $320 per ton CFR for the 7,500 tons scheduled for shipment in February and withdrew its latest bid. 　　4. Weak European natural gas prices in the first quarter: High inventory levels will keep TTF natural gas prices low during the first quarter, which means that ammonia imports to northwestern Europe will decrease. 　　For future forecasts, the fundamentals of the ammonia market will remain weak by the end of the first quarter. However, the current supply and demand situation may keep prices stable until the end of February.