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Urea and phosphate ammonium prices remain stuck; potassium chloride prices keep rising. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-10-09 Clicks: 24. With the long holiday over, the fertilizer market remains as it was: urea prices are stagnant, while phosphate ammonium prices keep increasing. Both of them want their prices to rise, really want to, but it remains just wishful thinking； Only potassium chloride continues to pursue poetry and distant horizons. Before the festival, prices in the border trade market for potassium chloride saw a slight decline; to this day, there is still a certain degree of inversion in pricing, with importers offering higher prices. The price for 62% pure potassium chloride at the ports is between 1700–1750 yuan per ton, while middlemen generally offer lower prices, around 1700 yuan per ton. What’s going on here? Don’t rush; aside from the apparent price fluctuations, we should also take a look at the trading situation. First of all, importers are offering preliminary prices for goods available in October, and although these prices have risen again, they all claim to be under no sales pressure ； Secondly, sales improved after the middlemen reduced prices slightly. What do we see here? First, the market is not that booming; many transactions take place within the upper levels of the system ； Second, downstream customers question the high prices, but they have gradually come to accept relatively lower prices as prices continue to rise ； Third, in short, anyway, it’s just one word: rise! A similar situation exists in the port market as well; and since ports are at the forefront of this trend, they develop even faster. Some of the goods available at low prices in the early stages have been used up, while others have been acquired by large traders. In short, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find such goods, which means that supply has become more concentrated. Before the holiday, the low price of 62% white potassium at ports was around 1,950–1,980 yuan. Although most traders have temporarily stopped providing quotes and are waiting to see what happens now that the long holiday has just ended, it is said that the minimum psychological price has dropped to around 2,000 yuan. And now that the price of Mass Market products has almost reached 2,000 yuan, considering the rumors that emerged at the beginning of this price increase – that ordinary white potassium would reach 2,000 yuan, and that 62% white powder would be in short supply and might rise to 2,100 yuan – don’t you think folks are feeling quite hopeful again? Is the current cessation of quoting really due to a break and a chance to focus on oneself, requiring further observation, or is it because of those extra expectations? This round of rebound in potassium chloride prices has now entered its second phase. The first phase was when the price of potassium chloride at ports rose from below 1,800 yuan to 2,000 yuan; that phase was intended to make buyers accept the increase in prices ； The current second phase is one in which the price of port-grade white potassium rises from 2,000 yuan to an effort to reach 2,100 yuan; it is a stage during which intermediaries accept the fact of the price increase and start to expect further rises ； Could there be a third phase? How high will potassium chloride prices need to rise before it reaches an end? In fact, the price of potassium chloride has been rising for the third month now, with the increase exceeding 250 yuan. Yet so far, the price increases have been driven mainly by those at higher levels, and there is still a lack of real support for these prices. Meanwhile, there has been no significant rise in international prices, nor in those of nitrogen and phosphorus; similarly, there has been no substantial increase in the prices of potassium sulfate and compound fertilizers. Therefore, the idea of a brighter future still seems somewhat illusory. Perhaps potassium chloride prices will remain strong and reach new highs in the short term, but unless there are major issues on the supply side, such as repeated strikes in Belarus, pandemics, or other factors affecting Canadian exports, then even if a third phase does occur, its impact is likely to have been largely exhausted by the first two phases. Therefore, in the face of strong competition from potassium chloride, it is recommended that end-users be cautious of price reversals during winter storage and spring planting. Factory customers should plan their purchasing timing and quantities based on their own production needs and the premium associated with their products, while intermediaries should adopt a strategy similar to that of urea traders – acting in small steps but quickly. (Adu)