Urea prices soar and then fall; fertilizer prices experience another rollercoaster ride

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Urea Prices Soar and Fall Again; Fertilizer Prices Experience Another Rollercoaster Ride Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2021-01-27 Clicks: 12 A few days ago, urea prices rose by over 200 in just one week, only to drop back to 100 within three or four days. During those initial days of sharp price increases, many in the industry claimed that urea prices would rise to 2,200 yuan, with some predicting they might even reach 2,300 yuan. Many then brought up the volatile trends in fertilizer prices during 2007–2008; of course, most ignored the downward trend and instead dreamed of another surge in prices. The atmosphere was truly enthusiastic! 　　The nitrogen level is really high; once a little urea is added, it goes up again ； Phosphorus is really scarce; diammonium is still being released! Does it not cause a bit of irritation in those who produce potash fertilizer to watch others ride roller coasters? Come on, let the author scratch you. 　　Looking at the image above, you might not feel much, so take a look at the image below. Close your eyes, take a deep breath, then open them: this is the moment to witness a miracle! 　　Surprised? Is it irritating? Is adrenaline surging? Stay calm! There’s a 99% chance it’s just a coincidence! But today we’re here just to have some fun, so let’s just take a look at what makes up that 1% of unexpected surprises. 　　First, let’s look at the objective factors. In 2020, there was a rise in the price of potassium chloride, driven by a black swan event, namely the major strikes in Belarus. Just these past few days, while browsing the news, I came across the words “Russia” and “protests”. At first glance, I thought it was Belarus going on strike again, so I quickly took a closer look. It’s okay; it was indeed Russia and not Belarus, and it was a parade rather than a strike. But this heart of mine still feels a bit uneasy and can’t completely let go. Why is that? In terms of the countries from which China imports potassium chloride, Belarus ranks third, while Russia ranks second. In 2020, China imported 1.377 million tons of potassium chloride from Belarus, whereas it imported 2.261 million tons from Russia! So, Uncle Putin, you need to hold on! 　　In addition to those protests and riots where it seemed as though Americans were always lurking in the background, there is something even more serious: the COVID-19 pandemic, which continues to spread. Even with such good control in our country, there have been rebounds; what’s more, what about those foreigners who have no idea what the connection is between freedom and wearing masks, but still insist on acting recklessly? Of the world’s total population of 7.2 billion, the number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 has already exceeded 100 million! Today it could be positive ice cream and cherries, but how could it be potassium chloride tomorrow? Today it’s Chia Tai Foods; how could it be Potassium-added Russian Potassium tomorrow? 　　Secondly, look for it from subjective factors. The rollercoaster-like trends in the market from 2007 to 2008 were partly due to the speculation by international hot money. Over the year since the outbreak of the pandemic, economies around the world have experienced fluctuations, but one thing that is common to them all is that food security has been raised to an exceptionally high level. Over the course of this year, big players have speculated in commodities and stock futures, all of which have experienced significant fluctuations. Will they turn their attention to fertilizers as well? 　　It seems the author is about to become a demagogue; better stop now. Remember, what’s mentioned above is merely highlighting that 1% slim possibility in an attempt to stir up the nerves of those in the potassium chloride industry who have been facing difficulties recently. Always remember: rollercoaster market conditions only enable a few people to become rich, while causing harm to many others! But those in the potassium fertilizer industry should still stay motivated; let price increases be a surprise this spring. Make it their top priority, keep in mind their commitment and contributions during these special times, and keep working hard! 　　(Adu)