【2025 Chemical Industry News】5.8 million tons/year of SAF: Honeywell, Johnson Matthey, GIDARA Energy, and Samsung E&A form a strategic technology alliance
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This post was last edited by zhoudingshengs on 2025-6-27 07:18. Honeywell, JohnsonMatthey, GIDARA Energy, and Samsung E&A have recently announced the formation of a strategic technology alliance aimed at providing the global market with breakthrough end-to-end solutions for producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from biomass and urban solid waste. This alliance brings together the expertise and capabilities of its member companies in various fields to help customers streamline the entire SAF production chain, from raw materials to finished products. Global demand and production of SAF are growing at a rapid pace, and the situation of supply falling short of demand will persist for a long time. The demand for SAF is expected to rise from 1.24 million tons in 2023 to 6.3 million tons by 2025, and to 25 million tons by 2030, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 296.83% over these five years. Statistics from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show that production of SAF increased from 20,000 tons to 1 million tons between 2019 and 2024. It is expected to reach 2.1 million tons by 2025 and 17 million tons by 2030.
The development of SAF faces numerous challenges: one is high production costs. According to statistics from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the production cost of SAF is approximately 2 to 8 times that of aviation kerosene. Among them, even with the currently relatively mature HEFA process, the lowest market price of the product is still 1.9 to 2.8 times that of aviation kerosene; it will be very difficult to further reduce the cost of HEFA in the short term. Second is insufficient supply capacity. In 2019, the global aviation industry consumed approximately 360 billion liters of fuel, and it is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of around 3% in the future. At present, the annual production of SAF is only 50 million liters, accounting for less than 0.02% of the total volume. Even without considering price factors, it will be necessary to significantly increase SAF production in the coming years to meet market demand.
Third, the properties of the components are not clear. To maximize emission reduction potential, SAF ideally should not need to be blended with any conventional fuels. However, since current production technologies mostly replicate the paraffin components in aviation kerosene, such as n-alkanes and isoparaffins, the industry lacks a comprehensive understanding of to what extent SAF’s performance characteristics can mirror those of aviation kerosene; as a result, the blending ratio of SAF in commercial use is limited to below 50%. Fourth, the certification process is lengthy. Currently, obtaining SAF certification takes 3 to 5 years and costs over $5 million, with the total cost for the entire process reaching $10 million to $15 million.
In developed countries and regions such as Europe and the United States, the strategic moves of leading companies in various industries are particularly noteworthy. For example, the world’s first producers of sustainable aviation fuel, such as WorldEnergy, Neste, Gevo, and Total, are continuing to increase their investments in order to expand their production capacity. Among them, some European companies have made rapid progress in expanding their production capacity, thanks to the well-developed local raw material collection systems and advanced technical processes.
Globally, many companies are actively investing in the development of SAF production capacity. According to forecasts by Argus Consulting, SAF production capacity in the Asia-Pacific region is set to experience a significant increase, reaching 3.5 million tons per year (77,671 barrels per day) by 2026 – nearly triple the 1.24 million tons per year level in 2024. Outside of China, at least 5 SAF projects in Asia have already been put into operation or are scheduled to do so this year. Many of these projects aim to export their products, targeting other countries in the region as well as the European market.
Although global SAF production capacity will increase significantly in 2024, its share of the total global demand for aviation fuel remains low; there is still substantial room for growth in the future. However, with the gradual completion of ongoing projects and continued investment by companies, SAF production capacity is expected to experience explosive growth in the coming years, providing stronger support for the sustainable development of the aviation industry.
From the supply side, China’s total SAF production in 2022 was approximately 1,000 tons. According to Korn Ferry’s projections, China’s total SAF production is expected to reach 130,000 to 170,000 tons by 2025, and it is likely to increase to 570,000 to 1.12 million tons by 2030.
Currently, there are 6 SAF production enterprises in operation in China, namely Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Ego Environmental Protection, Junheng Biology, Haike Chemical, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and Pengyao Environmental Protection (see Table 1 for details). All of these enterprises use the fatty acid hydrogenation (HEFA) process for production; their capacity, based on the amount of raw materials used, is approximately 950,000 tons per year, allowing them to produce 400,000 to 500,000 tons of SAF per year. Among them, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Henan Junheng, and Haisin New Energy have received the airworthiness certificates for biojet fuel issued by the Airworthiness Certification Department of the Civil Aviation Administration of China. However, in 2024, domestic production capacity remains at the pilot production stage on a scale of a few thousand tons, with some companies merely conducting trial operations with feedstock.
From the demand side, the Civil Aviation Administration, in its \"14th Five-Year Plan for the Green Development of Civil Aviation,\" stated that by 2025 the cumulative amount of SAF used in China should reach 50,000 tons, with the goal of having SAF consumption exceed 20,000 tons by that year. Furthermore, according to Deloitte China’s projections, China’s demand for SAF is set to reach 3 million tons by 2030, 45 million tons by 2035, and 86 million tons by 2050. The situation of supply falling short of demand for SAF in China will persist for a long time, and the need to promote the use of SAF will continue to grow.
With the advancement of carbon emission reduction in the aviation industry, and under potential future policy guidance and support, there is potential for rapid growth on both the supply and demand sides of SAF. At present, the planned production capacity for SAF in China totals approximately 5.8 million tons per year (see Table 1 for details). Based on the progress of construction, it is estimated that by 2025 the total potential capacity of SAF production facilities (based on the amount of raw materials used) will be around 2.5 million tons per year, allowing for the production of 1.1 to 1.5 million tons of SAF per year. This amount will be sufficient to meet 2% to 3% of China’s total annual demand for aviation fuel.
The vigorous development of the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry requires a multi-pronged and coordinated approach. At the policy level, a tiered subsidy and tax incentive system should be established, a closed-loop system for carbon asset trading should be created, raw material supply management should be optimized, and mandatory blending targets should be set in order to leverage policy benefits to boost market vitality. In the technology sector, it is necessary to advance the diversification of technical approaches in phases, accelerate process innovation and capacity planning, reduce production costs, and enhance industry competitiveness. In terms of infrastructure, it is necessary to upgrade airport refueling systems, promote mutual recognition of international standards and cross-border cooperation, and smooth global supply chains.