Estimated future Russian oil export capacity

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Oil production in the European part of Russia will remain largely stable, while the main areas for future growth in Russian crude oil production will include Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, and the Far East. According to the predictions of various domestic and foreign institutions, by 2010 Russia’s crude oil production could reach 5.0×108 tons per year to 5.5×108 tons per year; in other words, an additional production volume of 5000×104 tons per year to 10,000×104 tons per year could be achieved compared to the 2004 levels. The West Siberia region can achieve an additional production increase of at least 5000×104 tons per year, while in the East Siberia region, a number of newly developed oil fields can increase production by 3000×104 tons per year (or even more), provided that the necessary funding and human resources are available. As oil demand and crude oil processing capacity in Russia remain relatively stable, any additional production generated in the future can be used for export. As a result, it is estimated that by 2010, Russia will have an additional crude oil export capacity of around 8000×104 tons per year. If the future production (to be verified) of the Kuyumbin and Yarakokin oil fields in Eastern Siberia is taken into account, their export capacity will be even higher.