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The printing of labels did not go as planned; urea is no longer in demand. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2019-10-16. Clicks: 12. As time passes, the autumn fertilizer market is coming to an end, with some areas already having seen its conclusion. Similar to the previous quarters, the compound fertilizer market still gives the impression of being incomplete; many industry insiders say it feels like it’s already over before it has even really begun. Faced with another failure in the autumn market, the winter storage campaign for compound fertilizers has yet to get off the ground, leaving both the upstream and downstream markets in a stalemate. As for the positive factors for the fertilizer market, recent attention has largely focused on India’s urea tender; its preliminary results were released yesterday. The lowest bid prices on the east and west coasts were around $270 per ton (FOB), which corresponds to an ex-factory price of urea in Shandong and the Two Rivers regions of China of around 1,650 yuan per ton. This is lower than the current domestic ex-factory prices for urea in those areas. While this can help alleviate the shortage in domestic demand, it does not have a significant impact on boosting the overall fertilizer market. Rather than relying on urea, it is better to find alternative solutions based on one’s own circumstances, and water-soluble fertilizers are a good example of such alternatives. Firstly, raw material prices are high. Generally speaking, the prices of water-soluble fertilizers change infrequently, and companies tend to adjust their promotional policies to meet the expectations of end-users. However, in recent times, due to a significant increase in raw material costs, prices for water-soluble fertilizers are likely to rise in the future. As one of the key raw materials for water-soluble fertilizers, the price of potassium dihydrogen phosphate continues to rise. Currently, the standard ex-factory price in the main production areas is around 7,500 yuan per ton. Due to the tight supply of yellow phosphorus, the price is expected to remain high in the short term ； The prices of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers remain weak, but prices that are close to their bottom levels will surely start to rise in the future. Therefore, an increase in raw material costs will drive up the prices of water-soluble fertilizers. Secondly, there is high downstream demand. We are currently in the transition period between autumn and winter; the fertilizer market appears to be in a slow season, but in fact demand will rise soon in winter. Unlike traditional fertilizers, the demand for water-soluble fertilizers in winter is relatively immediate; there is no need for long-term storage, and market activity is quite active ； Furthermore, in recent years the planting structure in most regions has improved significantly. The low prices and poor yields of traditional crops have led to an increasing area dedicated to the cultivation of cash crops year by year, resulting in a sharp rise in demand for new types of fertilizers, especially water-soluble fertilizers. However, winter is the peak season for fertilizer use in both the greenhouse vegetable farming areas in the north and the fruit tree farming areas in the south; thus, the positive expectations regarding downstream demand are driving the market for water-soluble fertilizers. Finally, supply or scarcity. Recently, the draft of the \"Action Plan for Comprehensive Control of Air Pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Its Surroundings during the Autumn and Winter Periods 2019–2020\" was made public. Its main objectives are to make steady progress while striving for further improvements in air quality; to ensure that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas meet the air quality improvement targets set for 2019; to coordinate efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions; and to reduce the average concentration of PM2.5 by 5.5% on an annual basis during the autumn and winter period (from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020), as well as to cut the number of days with severe or worse pollution levels by 8% on an annual basis. As a result, the production conditions of enterprises in some areas are concerning, and short-term supply shortages may also occur. In summary, it is believed that the hype surrounding urea tenders in India will soon subside. With rising raw material prices, strong demand, and potential supply constraints, the winter market for water-soluble fertilizers is set to be more stable and smoother compared to other traditional fertilizers. (Feng Hongyang)