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The compound fertilizer market began in September amid anticipation and caution; however, unlike the peak-season pattern of concentrated shipments seen in previous years at the same time, it showed a moderate trend this year. Although the window for preparing fertilizers in autumn is gradually narrowing, the struggle between high costs for enterprises and delayed demand release continues; industry players are adopting a cautious approach, operating carefully while waiting for clearer trends to emerge. The market appears calm on the surface but is actually turbulent beneath. At the beginning of September, the domestic compound fertilizer market showed a stable trend. In terms of price, the mainstream factory prices have remained relatively stable; currently, the price for 45%S (14:16:15/3*15) is 2900–3050 yuan per ton, while the price for 45%CL (3*15) is 2430–2600 yuan per ton. Figure 1: Comparison of weekly spot price trends for 45% S (3*15) compound fertilizer (yuan/ton). However, behind this seemingly stable situation, there are underlying fluctuations in the market. With urea prices remaining weak and it being difficult to raise prices for other raw materials, transaction prices for high-nitrogen products have seen a hidden decline in some regions of North China, by 30–60 yuan/ton. Currently, the reference prices are as follows: 2380–2600 yuan/ton for 45% CL (25:13:7), 2420–2550 yuan/ton for 42% CL (17:20:5), and 2680–2850 yuan/ton for 45% CL (18:22:5). Market trading activity remains sluggish; factories are primarily fulfilling prior orders. Daily shipment volumes are roughly equal to daily production levels, highlighting the lack of enthusiasm among downstream players to restock. Raw material costs: The divergent trends in the raw materials market result in uneven support for fertilizer costs. Figure 2: Trend chart of prices for major raw materials used in compound fertilizers (yuan/ton). Currently, there are no significant positive factors driving the supply and demand dynamics of urea; as a result, industry players are generally shifting their focus to external indicators such as tenders in India. Until clearer information becomes available, market sentiment will find it difficult to improve, with downstream buyers maintaining a cautious attitude. On the supply side for monoammonium phosphate, companies are receiving limited new orders; the amount of goods ready for shipment is decreasing while inventory levels are rising. On the demand side, attention should be paid to improvements in the shipment of compound fertilizers. The short-term weakness poses a negative impact on the market, but fortunately, high prices of sulfur and phosphate ore provide support, helping to keep costs stable in the short term. Trading activity in the domestic potash market remains sluggish. With an increasing volume of imported supplies and weak downstream demand, transactions at higher price levels have reached a stalemate, with some deals even declining in number. However, the demand for potash during autumn is not significant, so its impact on the cost of compound fertilizers is limited. Overall, the stalemate regarding nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium does not provide much support for the promotion of compound fertilizers in the autumn market. However, compared to the beginning of the season, companies’ calculated costs remain high, which leads to price maintenance. Supply and demand situation: High inventory levels and declining production. Figure 3 shows the inventory trend of sample compound fertilizer manufacturers in ten thousand tons. On the supply side, although the capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizers is not high (around 39%-40%), corporate inventories are at their highest levels in the past two years, putting pressure on some companies. On the demand side, due to weak grain prices and weather conditions, downstream buyers are cautious about making purchases, resulting in the arrival of autumn fertilizers being significantly slower than in previous years. There is a severe lack of confidence in stock preparation at the grassroots level, which makes it difficult for dealers to quickly sell off their existing inventory. Downstream distributors are moving slowly in preparing fertilizers, showing a strong tendency to wait and see, worried about another scenario of price increases during the off-season and price drops during the peak season; they are watching for signs of an improvement in the enthusiasm of these downstream parties. In the short term, there will be narrow-range price fluctuations. As the autumn fertilization period approaches, downstream buyers will gradually become more inclined to stock up, leading companies to intensify their promotional efforts. At present, the delivery progress for first-level distributors is around 50-60%, with the remaining amount to be supplied by September; as a result, market supply and demand will gradually increase, and the inventory pressure on companies will also ease over time. Yet even so, the incentive for price adjustments remains insufficient. The market will seek a new balance point amid the interplay of various bullish and bearish factors, waiting for the next clear signal.