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Overview of China’s Potash Fertilizer Market in 2020 Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-12-31 Clicks: 5 After the struggles in 2017, and the perseverance throughout 2018–2019, China’s potash fertilizer market finally managed to recover and thrive in 2020. That year, those involved in the potassium chloride market kept its price at the cost level, and they pursued their tactics to the end, achieving an impressive record of five consecutive months of price increases ； Potassium sulfate production was pushed back to peak levels, while inventory levels were reduced to the minimum, thus triggering another wave of capacity expansion. That year, the price of large-scale contracts for potassium chloride imports was reduced by $70; yet the price per unit of nutrient content for potassium chloride, which kept rising, remained lower than that of nitrogen and phosphorus ； Potassium sulfate exports have continued to grow, and in most cases it has been exported at prices that are not lower than those for domestic sales; from this perspective, its performance is better than that of nitrogen and phosphorus. That year, the leading players remained what they were, and agents no longer sold at a loss ； That year, people were more rational; speculation was not as extreme, and price wars hardly took place. In short, it is a year of recovery, a year of profits, and a year of hope! ***Potassium chloride: Supply and demand: According to preliminary statistics from Zhongfei Net, the operation rate of potassium chloride production facilities in Qinghai in 2020 was around 80%, with a physical production volume of about 7.17 million tons, representing a decrease of roughly 4% compared to 2019 ； Customs data show that from January to November, the import volume of potassium chloride was 8.175 million tons, while the export volume was around 190,000 tons. The estimated total import and export volumes for the whole year are… (For more details, please visit the member area of Zhongfei Network; the same applies hereafter.) ； Meanwhile, by the end of 2020, the inventory level in the Qinghai region was approximately …, with a total inventory at ports of around 2.86 million tons (2.62 million tons being regular port inventory, and the remaining amount being goods in free trade zones). The final estimate for domestic potassium chloride consumption in 2020 is … The largest price difference (based on quotes) was as follows: for 60% potassium content from salt lakes, the highest delivery price in 2020 was 2100 yuan (from January to April), while the lowest price was 1820 yuan (from May to July); thus, the maximum price difference was 280 yuan (compared to 340 yuan in 2019) ； For 62% white potassium at ports, the highest prevailing price was 2,250 yuan (around the end of February and early March), while the lowest price was 1,820 yuan (at the end of July); the maximum price difference was 430 yuan (360 yuan in 2019). Average price on a month-on-month basis (based on quoted prices): The average arrival price of 60% potassium chloride from salt lakes in 2020 was 1,942 yuan, which is 331 yuan less than the 2,273 yuan in 2019, representing a decline of nearly 15% ； The average price for 62% white potash at ports is 2,035 yuan, which is 301 yuan lower than the 2,336 yuan in 2019, representing a decline of 13%. Key turning points: …… Important support levels: …… Issues exposed: …… ***Potassium sulfate: Supply and demand: According to preliminary statistics from Zhongfei Net, the national production of potassium sulfate in 2020 was around 4.33 million tons, representing an increase of about 8.5% compared to 2019. Of this amount, the production of Mannheim-type potassium sulfate was approximately 2.23 million tons, with a utilization rate of around 73%, which is nearly 30% higher than in 2019. The production of potassium sulfate produced via the water-salt method was around 2.1 million tons, with a utilization rate of about 58%, a decrease of around 7% compared to 2019 ； Customs data show that from January to November, the import volume of potassium sulfate was 69,000 tons, while the export volume was 360,000 tons; the estimated total import and export volumes for the whole year are respectively…… ； Meanwhile, by the end of 2020, the total factory inventory was approximately... The final estimate for domestic potassium sulfate consumption in 2020 is… The largest price difference (based on actual prices in the Central Plains market) was 350 yuan: the highest price for 52% potassium sulfate powder sold by agents in 2020 was 2700 yuan at the end of the year, while the lowest price was 2350 yuan in June ； The average factory price of Mannheim’s 52% water-soluble powder was 2,800 yuan in March, the highest value, and 2,500 yuan in September, the lowest value; the maximum price difference was 300 yuan. When comparing the maximum price differences, there is not much difference compared to the situation in 2019. Average price on a month-on-month basis (based on actual prices in the Central Plains market): In 2020, the average arrival price for 52% powder products in the water-salt system was 2,501 yuan, which is 284 yuan less than 2,785 yuan in 2019, representing a decrease of around 10% ； The average ex-factory price of Mannheim 52% fully water-soluble powder is 2,633 yuan, which is 242 yuan lower than 2875 yuan in 2019, representing a decrease of 8.4%. Key turning point: … Important support level: … Problems exposed: … (Adu)