Official Big Guesses on Olympic Champions

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Heading to Rio, how many gold medals? At the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the Chinese delegation achieved a historic success by winning 51 gold medals, 21 silver medals, and 28 bronze medals, thus topping the medal table ； At the 2012 London Olympics, the Chinese delegation won a total of 38 gold medals, 27 silver medals, and 23 bronze medals, finishing second in both the gold medal count and the overall medal tally – achieving its best result in Olympic competitions held abroad. The performance of the Chinese delegation at the 2016 Rio Olympics was undoubtedly the focus of everyone’s attention. **Liu Peng, head of the General Administration of Sport, believes that the preparation for the Rio Olympics is facing severe circumstances and challenges. Although the Chinese team is still able to maintain its traditional advantages in sports such as table tennis, badminton, gymnastics, shooting, weightlifting, and diving, it is facing increasing pressure. In the 2015 World Championships, badminton’s women’s singles event achieved its worst results in 32 years; diving no longer has an advantage in certain events; some key weightlifting athletes made serious mistakes at the World Championships; and changes in the rules for shooting have increased uncertainty in the scores. In potential strength areas such as certain events in sailing, cycling, fencing, boxing, taekwondo, etc., the Chinese team shows decent levels and results, but these have not been consistent; in most other events, there has been no significant improvement ； Although track and swimming have made great progress this year, it will be very difficult to achieve even greater breakthroughs in Rio ； Among the team sports, aside from categories such as women’s volleyball, men’s basketball, women’s field hockey, and women’s football which have performed well enough to secure a spot, the others have not yet qualified or are relatively weak; moreover, the women’s basketball team’s heavy defeat in the Asian Championship final was shocking. At the 2012 London Olympics, the Chinese team continued to dominate in events such as table tennis, badminton, diving, and weightlifting: the badminton team won all 5 gold medals, whereas they had only won 3 gold medals at the Beijing Olympics ； The table tennis team, just as in 2008, won all 4 gold medals once again ； The diving team won 6 of the 8 gold medals ； Weightlifting and gymnastics also each won 5 gold medals ； The shooting team performed poorly, winning only 2 gold medals. If the Chinese team is able to maintain its dominance in these traditional strong areas at the Rio Olympics, even if the composition of medals in some individual events changes, it is very likely that they will win between 25 and 27 gold medals. Furthermore, the Chinese swimming team, led by Sun Yang and Ye Shiwen at the London Olympics, won a total of 5 gold medals, 2 silver medals, and 3 bronze medals, achieving a historic breakthrough ； A total of 5 track and field medals, 1 gold and 4 silver, also set a record for the number of medals won by the Chinese delegation in a single Olympic Games ； Fencing, sailing, taekwondo, and boxing also won a total of 5 gold medals. In this competition, although almost all swimmers are participating, the advantage in terms of winning gold medals has diminished. It is still uncertain how well Sun Yang’s foot injury will have recovered by then. Ye Shiwen and Fu Yuanhui continue to struggle to return to their peak form. The outcome of Ning Zetao’s 100-meter freestyle race is also uncertain. With Liu Zige and Jiao Liuyang withdrawing, it will be extremely difficult to match or even exceed the 5 gold medals won in the previous edition. In events such as fencing, women’s boxing, women’s track cycling, and synchronized swimming, the Chinese team has the capability to compete for medals or even gold medals. If they perform at their best level during the competitions and have a bit of luck, it is quite possible for them to win 3 to 5 additional gold medals in these areas with potential advantages. It is not difficult for the Chinese team to win 30 gold medals or more at the Rio Olympics, thereby ranking among the top teams in terms of both gold medals and total medals won. However, whether they can compete with the United States will depend on their performance on competition day.