Prices in coal-producing areas continue to rise, with demand for chemical coal becoming the main driving force

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Analysis of Coal Market Trends as of September 16, 2025: I. Rising prices in production areas, with enhanced support from the supply side 1. Prices in key production regions remain stable but on the upward trend; over 60 coal mines across the country have raised their coal prices, with increases ranging from 5 to 15 yuan per ton. Ordos foamed coal (CV5000, S0.3) rose to 423 yuan/ton, while Sanbākuai (CV5300, S0.3) exceeded 450 yuan/ton ； The price of high-calorific value coal varieties in Yulin, such as CV6300 Sanbākuài, is 660 yuan per ton, with demand from the chemical industry being the main driving force. A coal mine in Zhongyang, Lüliang, Shanxi was shut down due to an accident; coupled with the suspension of sales at some coal mines in Shaanxi and Xinjiang for equipment maintenance or environmental reasons, regional supply tightened further, driving up bullish sentiment in the market. 2. Divergence on the demand side: Demand in the chemical industry and for winter storage is increasing. The chemical and metallurgical industries are active in making purchases, while terminal operators and traders are concentrating their efforts on restocking, keeping inventory levels at low levels. Demand from non-electric sectors (such as coal chemicals and building materials) provided strong support; the price of certain types of coal used in coal chemical production increased by 3–5 yuan per ton per transaction, resulting in a significant cumulative increase. Furthermore, expectations of power plants replenishing their stock levels ahead of the National Day holiday have increased, but current daily consumption by power plants is on a seasonal decline, leading to cautious purchasing behavior. II. Port market stabilizes; traders become more reluctant to sell 1. Prices stop falling and stabilize, while transaction volume remains low. The mainstream price for Q5500 at the ports along the Bohai Sea is 680–690 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan from last week ； The price of low-calorie coal (Q4500) is 520–530 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan. Port inventories dropped slightly to 23.196 million tons, but the number of ships at anchor decreased, indicating a slowdown in inventory replenishment downstream. Traders are reluctant to sell due to inverted shipping costs; prices for high-quality, high-calorific coal (such as low-sulfur 5500 kcal coal) remain firm, but downstream buyers have limited tolerance for high prices. 2. Inventory and capacity constraints will affect the autumn maintenance plan for the Taijin Line (to begin on October 7), potentially leading to premature shipments by downstream parties and limiting the amount of goods that can be brought into the ports. Currently, the volume of goods entering the port has decreased by 11.4% on a month-on-month basis, while the volume of goods leaving the port has dropped by 13.9%; pressure to reduce inventory levels remains.