A race between the pace of technological progress and industrialization
Thread Content
In recent years, coal chemical projects have attracted a great deal of attention； Large state-owned enterprises and central state-owned enterprises in China are investing heavily in the construction of coal chemical projects… Private enterprises are also investing heavily in such projects… Foreign companies are forming joint ventures with domestic firms to develop large-scale coal chemical projects… A range of coal chemical projects, including coal coking, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-ethylene glycol, are thriving across the country. At the same time, coal chemical technologies are constantly evolving, with updates occurring more frequently. The high investment requirements and high returns associated with coal chemical projects mean that cost control is key to survival; those with lower costs, advanced technology, and the ability to produce on a large scale will be able to dominate the market. After researching the coal chemical sector, I believe that it could become the main focus of China’s chemical industry in the next phase. But will coal chemical processing remain as traditional as the processes used in oil refining—such as atmospheric and vacuum distillation, catalysis, coking, hydrogenation, and reforming—and unchanged for decades? With continuous technological advancements and the launch of new projects, is it possible that for projects with a construction period of 2–3 years, the technology used might become obsolete by the time they start operating at full capacity?:lol? Everyone is welcome to discuss! @Fish in the desert
The coal chemical industry is still growing at a rapid pace; most of the projects that have been built are in the stage of upgrading and demonstration. The prices of certain products such as ethylene glycol are on the decline, and methanol is also experiencing saturation. Therefore, investments in this industry should take into account both the actual conditions of individual companies and market demands. Among the areas with promising potential for investment in coal chemistry are coal-based aromatics, coal-based films, and coal-based carbon fiber materials. Coal-to-ethanol is also a promising investment area.
A while ago, at a seminar organized by Ningxia Coal, I had the privilege of meeting several academicians from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. They stated that coal-based ethanol production was not the original intention behind such developments; the promotion of ethanol gasoline was mainly aimed at dealing with the existing stockpiles of aged or moldy grains. In the future, more emphasis should be placed on producing ethanol from biomass, as coal-based ethanol production is not recommended
The methods for producing ethanol from biomass are advanced and forward-thinking, but they have started late; they suffer from limitations such as small scale, low conversion rates, and immature technology, making large-scale industrial application difficult at present； Considering the current status of the coal chemical industry, it is promising to produce ethanol as a clean energy source via a hydrogenation route, starting from coal and using syngas in an intermediate step to generate acetic acid; the production of acetic acid allows for flexible manufacturing of both products, enabling mutual benefits. Previously, **experts from the Energy Security Department confirmed this route.
The prices of some products such as ethylene glycol are on the decline, and methanol is also showing signs of saturation. Has there been any analysis done on this? This drop in prices is attributed to factors related to the coal-based chemical industry; will the production capacity that relies on oil and gas as raw materials be affected first?
Would it be easier to understand from a strategic perspective?