Break-even point
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The process for producing ethanol from coal has now been developed successfully by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics: the basic workflow involves first using coal to produce syngas, which is then used to manufacture methanol and dimethyl ether; from these substances methyl acetate is obtained, and finally ethanol is produced through hydrogenation. However, this production process is lengthy, which results in higher costs for ethanol; the price of the ethanol produced at the factory is approximately 5,000 yuan per ton. The current scale of “coal-to-ethanol plants under construction” is at most 500,000 tons per year. If an industrial plant is to be built downstream to produce polymeric-grade ethylene (with a purity of not less than 99.95%) by dehydrating ethanol using this coal, high energy consumption is required because ethanol dehydration is an endothermic reaction. Moreover, if the crude ethylene (with a purity of around 95%) is further purified to 99.95% through two stages of distillation under low temperature and high pressure, the total cost will be very high. It is estimated that the ex-factory price of purified polyethylene-grade ethylene will experience an inversion. Therefore, I would like to consult experts: under such circumstances, what scale in tens of thousands of tons per year is required for \"coal-to-ethanol\" production in order to ensure that the total cost of \"polymer-grade ethylene\" produced by the dehydration of ethanol is comparable to the current price of ethylene obtained through petroleum cracking, which is around 8,000 yuan per ton? That is, what is the break-even point in 10,000 tons of ethanol per year? If anyone who knows knows, could they give me a rough idea? Thank you!
To determine the \"break-even point\" between \"ethanol produced from coal\" and \"petroleum cracking processes\", you need to consider the following factors: 1. Raw material costs: First, you need to estimate the cost of producing ethanol from coal, including the costs associated with purchasing coal, producing syngas, as well as the costs of manufacturing methanol and methyl acetate. At the same time, the raw material costs of the petroleum cracking process are taken into account, including the costs of petroleum procurement and refining. 2. Energy consumption cost: You have mentioned that the dehydration of ethanol in \"coal-to-ethanol\" is an endothermic reaction, thus requiring high energy input. This energy cost needs to be taken into account. 3. Processing cost: Consider the processing cost of converting ethanol into ethylene, including steps such as ethanol dehydration and purification. These steps may require high energy consumption, thereby increasing the total cost. 4. Market price: Understand the current market price of ethylene; you mentioned that the price of ethylene produced through the petroleum cracking process is around 8,000 yuan per ton. Once you have this cost and price data, you can estimate what scale of \"coal-to-ethanol\" production is needed to reach the break-even point by establishing a cost-benefit model. The specific steps may include: 1. Calculating the total cost of producing 1 ton of ethylene from coal-based ethanol, including raw material costs, energy consumption, and processing costs. 2. Compare this cost with the market price of ethylene (8,000 yuan/ton). 3. The output of “ethanol produced from coal” required to calculate the break-even point, that is, the amount of ethanol needed in tens of thousands of tons per year, so that the total cost of producing ethylene from ethanol dehydration is equivalent to the market price. This is a complex calculation that requires accurate data and economic analysis. It is recommended to consult engineers and economists in the relevant field, as they can provide detailed cost estimates and model development. .
The total cost I calculated for coal-based ethanol, including the final purification and refining processes, is approximately 14,000 yuan per ton, which is the price of \"polymer-grade ethylene\" at the factory. Its cost is almost twice as high as that of “polymer-grade ethylene” produced by petroleum cracking! So, if we calculate based on a \"cost price\" of 14,000 yuan per ton for polymeric-grade ethylene, could you help me figure out what scale of coal-to-ethanol plant would be appropriate to build first? It is known that, based on years of industrial operation, it takes approximately 1.8 tons of ethanol with over 95% purity to produce 1.0 ton of ethylene through dehydration.