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The International Energy Agency’s recent report titled \"Coal 2025\" indicates that as renewable energy, liquefied natural gas, and nuclear power develop rapidly, coal – as a traditional fossil fuel – will face increasing competitive pressure. It is expected that global demand for coal will reach a plateau by 2030, with a slight downward trend thereafter. The report shows that although global coal demand is expected to increase by 0.5% year-on-year to reach 8.85 billion tons in 2025, there are significant differences in the consumption patterns and development trends of coal in various major global coal markets. In the United States, coal demand has been declining at an average annual rate of 6% over the past 15 years. However, due to factors such as rising natural gas prices and policy support from the federal government aimed at delaying the shutdown of coal-fired power plants, coal consumption is expected to increase by 8% on a year-on-year basis by 2025. In India, an early and stronger monsoon season led to a decline in coal consumption in 2025, but this decline was due to seasonal factors and represents neither a trend nor a normal pattern. Guided by its policies, the EU experienced double-digit rapid declines in 2023 and 2024; due to insufficient generation from hydropower and wind power, coal consumption is expected to see a reduction of around 2% in 2025. At the same time, China’s coal consumption in 2025 will be roughly on par with the level in 2024. The report predicts that by 2030, global coal consumption is expected to be 3% lower than in 2025, falling below the 2023 level, while global coal-fired power generation is expected to drop below 2021 levels. This trend is mainly due to the transformation of the power industry; currently, coal used for electricity generation accounts for two-thirds of total global coal consumption. With the rapid growth in global installed capacity for renewable energy, the continued steady expansion of the nuclear power sector, and the influx of large volumes of liquefied natural gas into the market, it is expected that global coal-fired electricity generation will begin to decline starting in 2026. In contrast, coal demand in the industrial sector is expected to be less affected, as the process of replacing coal with other fuels in this sector is relatively slow; it is anticipated that coal consumption in industry will decline at a rate of less than 1% per year by 2030. The report shows that China plans to reach its peak carbon emissions by 2030, and has been making continuous efforts to transition toward green energy in recent years. The installed capacity of renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro, and wind power has been growing rapidly, and it is expected that China’s coal demand will decline by 2030. At the same time, the report predicts that by 2030, India will experience absolute growth in coal consumption, with demand rising at an annual rate of 3%, and the overall increase could exceed 200 million tons ； Southeast Asia will experience the fastest growth in coal consumption, with its annual growth rate in coal demand exceeding 4% by 2030. What is even more noteworthy is that the International Energy Agency had predicted that by 2030, U.S. coal demand would decline by an average of 6% per year. However, since 2025, the U.S. government has introduced policies to support the coal industry, providing assistance on both the supply and demand sides. These measures include environmental exemptions that allow some coal-fired power plants to continue operating, reduced fees for mining coal on federal lands, and support for the upgrading of coal-fired power plants. As a result, coal demand in the United States increased rather than declined in 2025. The International Energy Agency notes that if electricity demand is higher than expected, or if the phase-out of coal-fired power plants slows down, the rate of decline in U.S. coal consumption could ease. The report shows that global coal imports are expected to decline by about 5% on a year-on-year basis in 2025, with a significant drop possibly occurring by 2030. Among them, coal imports by developed economies are expected to continue to decline until 2030. However, given the growing reliance of India’s steel industry on imported coal, this will spur strong growth in global coking coal trade demand. Furthermore, as the world’s largest coal exporter, Indonesia experienced the greatest decline in exports in 2025, with a reduction of nearly 50 million tons. The report’s analysis indicates that as coal imports decline and the availability of cheaper and more abundant liquefied natural gas drives down prices, competition among coal-exporting countries will intensify. Global thermal coal prices have declined continuously over the past 2 years. By 2025, prices of thermal coal in Europe are expected to drop by about 10% compared to 2024, while prices in Asia are set to fall by around 20%. Thermal coal prices are gradually approaching their cost levels, resulting in a narrowing profit margin. A decline in import demand from countries such as Japan and South Korea could impact Australia’s exports of thermal coal. Due to relatively strong demand in India, coking coal exporters led by Australia seem to have better prospects for growth. IEA officials said that despite the unusual developments in several key coal markets in 2025, the IEA’s forecasts for the coming years have not changed significantly compared to previous ones. Global coal demand is expected to reach a plateau by 2030, after which it will decline gradually. Nevertheless, there are still many uncertainties surrounding the future of coal, including factors such as economic growth trends, policy choices, energy market dynamics, and climate change. These will continue to have a significant impact on global coal demand. In particular, the trend in global electricity demand and the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid will be key factors influencing the trajectory of global coal consumption. The report points out that on a global scale, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the pace of growth in electricity demand in developed and developing economies, policy orientations, as well as the speed at which coal will be replaced in certain industries and regions. If electricity consumption grows faster than expected, the pace of integrating renewable energy sources slows down, or large-scale investments are made in coal-based chemical industries, it could lead to global coal demand exceeding expectations. At the same time, in the current environment of lower prices, coal companies no longer enjoy the same level of profitability as before. Since 2024, M&A activity in the global coal industry has been almost stagnant. (Reporter: Wang Baokun)