SAF exceeds 1% threshold in the U.S.; airlines race to meet 2030 compliance goals
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In 2025, approximately 1.1% of the jet fuel consumed by U.S. commercial airlines came from sustainable aviation fuels. This figure may seem negligible, until one realizes how much effort has been required to reach this level, and how much more effort is still needed to meet the industry’s target of 10% by 2030. The gap from 1% to 10% represents one of the most capital-intensive transformations that any sector of the U.S. economy has ever attempted. The raw materials used for producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are diverse, including waste cooking oil, agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, and even captured carbon dioxide. It can be mixed directly with conventional aviation fuel without any modifications to existing aircraft engines – which is why the aviation industry views it as a key tool for decarbonization in the near future. Key point: In 2025, commercial aviation in the United States consumed approximately 10 billion gallons of aviation fuel. With a penetration rate of 1.1% for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), this amounts to around 110 million gallons – yet the 10% target by 2030 requires more than 1 billion gallons per year, meaning a nearly ten-fold increase over five years.
Key point: In 2025, commercial aviation in the United States consumed approximately 10 billion gallons of aviation fuel. With a penetration rate of 1.1% for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), this amounts to around 110 million gallons – yet the 10% target by 2030 requires more than 1 billion gallons per year, meaning a nearly ten-fold increase over five years. The current state of the supply chain: The main bottleneck in promoting sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is not demand – the total value of long-term purchase agreements already signed by the aviation industry is estimated at $8 billion – but rather production capacity. As of early 2026, there are roughly 30 certified sustainable aviation fuel production facilities operating or under construction in the United States; four years ago, that number was less than 10. Delta Air Lines was among the traditional airlines to take the lead in making purchases of such fuels, having signed multi-year supply agreements with producers such as Gevo and World Energy. United Airlines operates its own venture capital arm, United Airlines Venture Capital, which has invested in more than a dozen sustainable aviation fuel startups since 2021. American Airlines, on the other hand, focuses on policy advocacy, pushing the Biden administration and subsequent administrations to expand tax credits for blended fuels in order to make large-scale production of sustainable aviation fuel in the United States economically viable. The economic situation remains severe. In early 2026, the trading price of traditional jet fuel at U.S. airports was around $2.50 to $3.00 per gallon. The cost of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) depends on the raw materials and production methods; it ranges from $5.50 to $9.00 per gallon. Currently, airlines are unable to pass this premium on to consumers, as doing so would expose them to significant competitive risks. The tax credits provided under the Inflation Reduction Act for producers of sustainable aviation fuel blends—which can amount to up to $1.75 per gallon if the fuel reduces lifecycle carbon emissions by at least 50%—help to narrow this gap, but have not yet eliminated it entirely. Aviation experts’ views on the 2030 timeline: Aviation analysts and sustainability executives believe that, in theory, it is feasible to achieve a 10% penetration rate of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, but this requires near-perfect implementation in all three areas of supply, policy, and infrastructure development. Many industry insiders describe the current moment as a turning point. “Raw material issues are indeed the core challenge. We can build refineries and sign purchase agreements. But you can’t magically produce the large quantities of waste cooking oil or agricultural waste required by this industry. The raw material supply chain for sustainable aviation fuels must be regarded as critical **infrastructure**. ” ——Aviation sustainability analyst, speaking at the World Aviation Summit 2026. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) maintains that by 2030, the annual global production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) must reach approximately 30 billion liters in order for the aviation industry to stay on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Currently, the global production is estimated to be less than 1 billion liters. This is not a typo: the industry needs to increase production by about 30 times in less than four years. In the United States, the FAA’s CLEEN program has funded research into pathways for next-generation sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), including \"electro-liquid\" fuels that use renewable electricity to convert captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen into synthetic kerosene. These electronic fuels have not yet been commercialized on a large scale, but several American startups have begun pilot production, with analysts predicting that demonstration-scale production will be achieved by 2028.
A significant structural difference in approach between the United States and the EU is that the U.S. has no federal mandates regarding blended fuels – with most airlines currently adhering to voluntary targets – whereas the EU’s “ReFuelEU Aviation” regulation legally requires that the proportion of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) used at EU airports reach 2% by 2025, rising to 6% by 2030. Some industry executives in the United States privately support federal mandates, as this would level the playing field and provide manufacturers with the certainty of demand they need to justify building new facilities. What will happen next: The critical period from 2026 to 2028. The next two years are likely to determine whether the goal set for 2030 will truly be a milestone or just another unmet goal. Three developments will be decisive: congressional action on extending tax credits, the commissioning of multiple large-scale SAF facilities currently under construction, and the extent of investment by major airports in dedicated SAF blending and distribution infrastructure. Key milestones to watch: 2026–2030. Mid-2026 – Congress is expected to vote on extending the tax credits for sustainable aviation fuel under the Inflation Reduction Act ； The voting results will influence producers’ investment decisions over the next decade. By the end of 2026 – it is expected that three major sustainable aviation fuel refineries in the U.S. Midwest will be operating at full capacity, resulting in an increased annual supply of around 200 million gallons. 2027 — IATA’s mid-term review of the 2030 goals ； If the production progress fails to reach a 10% penetration rate, the industry and regulatory authorities will face difficult decisions regarding enforcement. 2028–2030 — Power-to-liquid e-fuel facilities are expected to reach demonstration-scale production ； This success could significantly reshape the long-term sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply landscape beyond 2030. Airport infrastructure is an underestimated constraint. Currently, most major airports in the United States lack dedicated pipeline systems for transporting sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This means that fuel trucks must physically transport SAF to aircraft. While this process is feasible when the volume of fuel required is low, it becomes impractical when aiming for a 10% blend rate at high-traffic hubs such as Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, O’Hare Airport, and Los Angeles International Airport. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has begun funding infrastructure assessments for the ten busiest airports in the United States, with a preliminary report expected to be released by the end of 2026. For passengers, the current reality is that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will remain imperceptible. In the short term, flights will not be labeled or priced differently based on their fuel source, although several airlines including United Airlines and KLM have introduced voluntary carbon offset programs to directly fund the purchase of sustainable aviation fuel. These plans are still niche at present but are growing, especially within corporate travel accounts, as requirements for sustainability reports have created institutional demand.
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